785
FXUS63 KGID 252338
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move roughly W to E
  across the area this evening and overnight. Some of these
  storms may be strong to severe. Risk levels for severe weather
  range from Marginal N of Hwy 92 (level 1 of 5) to Enhanced
  (level 3 of 5) south of Hwy 24, per the SPC. Main concerns are
  large hail and damaging winds, though isolated tornadoes and
  flash flooding may also be possible.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may redevelop Sunday
  afternoon. A few of these may also be strong to severe with
  large hail as the primary threat, but most storms Sunday are
  not expected to reach severe criteria.

- After a dry Monday, shower and thunderstorm chances return
  Tuesday evening and continue through the end of the work week.

- High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s with lows in
  the upper 40s and 50s through the forecast period.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Dewpoints have slowly been rising as moisture advects into
Kansas. There is increasing concern over the next few hours that
a few strong to severe thunderstorms will develop, impacting
areas of our north central Kansas counties. With the continued
increase in moisture to the area, the concern for tornado
development is increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This evening/tonight:
The main focus of this forecast is the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening, which are expected to persist into
the overnight hours tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west and south of the forecast area around 6PM this
evening and then move across the forecast area this evening and
overnight. As this does, increased low-level moisture will move
north into the region, increasing the chance for severe storms.
Models generally agree with the timing of storms moving across
the area, but there has been a slight downtrend with some of the
CAMs on how widespread they are, perhaps tapping into the
persistent mid- to high level cloud cover or perhaps indicating
that moisture will not flow as far north due to the stronger
storms over Kansas and Oklahoma. That being said, if robust
storms do develop, large hail up to golf ball size and damaging
wind gusts of 60-70 MPH will be possible with any clusters or
line of storm. Isolated tornadoes will be possible with discrete
supercells in the Enhanced risk area this evening OR from QLCS
spinups. Current thinking is that severe storms will be possible
from approximately 7PM this evening to 2AM Sunday morning, with
higher likelihood late in the evening/overnight as instability
and better moisture reaches the area.

With this being Memorial Day weekend, there will be a lot of
outdoor activities, so have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings/updates and have a plan of action and a safe place to
go if thunderstorms develop nearby or move into the area. These
storms will move across the area quickly so ensure you have
enough time to get to that safe place quickly if necessary.

Rest of the Holiday Weekend:
There will be at least a slight chance of showers/storms all day
Sunday, first with some lingering moisture Sunday morning then a
potential redevelopment of storms Sunday afternoon. Cannot rule
out an isolated storm with marginally severe hail Sunday
afternoon/evening, but most storms are not expected to be
severe. Sunday is not expected to be a washout, but isolated to
scattered PM storms will need to be watched. Fortunately,
Memorial Day itself is expected to be dry.

Tuesday through Friday:
Dry conditions continue through the daytime Tuesday with mild
temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elevated showers/storms may
develop Tuesday evening/night, and this looks to be the start of
another active period. A series of near-surface disturbances
will move across throughout the week bringing a chance of
showers and storms Wednesday, with better chances Thursday and
possibly Friday as an upper level trough moves over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period.
Winds remain gusty this evening from the south, becoming light
and variable later this evening. There is a chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms this evening, with hail and gusty winds
being the main concerns. Localized heavy rainfall may result in
reductions to visibility for a brief period of time. With any
thunderstorms, expect the possibility for stronger winds and
wind shifts associated with thunderstorms and outflow.
Thunderstorm chances will decrease from west to east after
midnight.  Heading into the day Saturday, winds will shift to
the north.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wekesser
DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Wekesser