Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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814 FXUS63 KSGF 160616 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (20-60%) today through Monday east of Highway 65. Most locations will see less than half an inch of additional rainfall, with localized pockets up to 1 inch. - A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal temperatures to the region by mid-week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 A mid-level disturbance across the Arkansas Delta has aided in precipitation development across the eastern Ozarks today. This activity will shift a touch farther west throughout the afternoon, but expectations remain for much if not all of the rain to stay east of Highway 65. Instability has been meager (500-1000 J/kg), so lightning chances are low. With little change to the overall synoptic pattern, low-end PoPs (15-30%) have been maintained through Monday, again for locations east of Highway 65. Additional forecast rainfall totals from this afternoon through Monday are generally less than half an inch, with the 12Z HREF LPMM indicating localized pockets near an inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper-level ridging building over the Missouri Ozarks will allow for mostly dry weather through the work week. A few ensemble solutions do develop light precipitation across extreme eastern Kansas and western Missouri on Thursday and Friday with some weak shortwave energy transiting the eastern edge of the upper- level trough, though confidence in this solution actually manifesting is low at this point, and PoPs are less than 20%. LREF ensembles depict the omega block breaking down by the weekend. This pattern shift may open the door for greater rain chances west of Springfield, where many locations have received little precipitation in the last several weeks. Temperatures will gradually increase above the climatological normal throughout the week as the aforementioned ridge builds and 850 mb temperatures warm. NBM percentile data indicate a 3-4 degree interquartile range each day, indicating fairly high confidence in the temperature forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 East to southeasterly winds will continue through the TAF period. Winds will weaken and be light this evening through tonight. Winds could potentially gust between 15-20 kts on Monday afternoon, though confidence is low in notable impacts from these gusts at this time; thus, left out of the TAFs for now. There is an area of light rain showers across portions of south central Missouri, which are spreading east underneath a low stratus deck. Obs indicate IFR ceilings amidst these conditions, so the trend of ceilings decreasing from east to west should be expected to continue. Climatology indicates BBG can be expected to remain IFR at least until 14Z, and MVFR through Monday afternoon. Showers should continue to weaken as they move west, though a prob30 has been added to the BBG TAF from 15-18Z. Rain is expected to remain south of SGF and east of JLN, with sub-30% PoPs through Monday at this time. An isolated rumble of thunder Monday afternoon is not out of the question either, especially in the southernmost extent of Missouri. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Didio LONG TERM...Didio AVIATION...Camden