Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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275 FXUS64 KAMA 141755 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the southern tip of NV. This system is progged to open into a shortwave trough and traverse the combined Panhandles. This will bring some thunderstorms chances late this evening into the overnight hours. These storms will primarily impact the western to northwestern combined Panhandles. Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 90s once again. Positive H7 theta-e advection of 330 to 340K will be in place over the northwestern third to half of the combined Panhandles again today. This good moisture advection will be helpful for thunderstorms to work with as the leading edge of the aforementioned shortwave approaches the FA later today. Severe storms cannot be ruled out as there is a potential for effective CAPE values between 800 (RAP) and 2500 J/Kg (NAM). The higher of this being towards Cimarron County. Bulk shear is progged to be around 15 to 30 kts depending on which model is looked at. Regardless of the CAPE and shear, conditions still favor high based storms with DCAPE values approaching 1800 J/Kg allowing for damaging winds to be the main concern. For Sat, the aforementioned shortwave trough will suppress H5 heights slightly allowing for afternoon highs to be in the lower 90s instead of mid to upper 90s. Positive H7 theta-e advection will continue into much of the combined Panhandles for Sat leading to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms. With out the help of the leading edge of the shortwave trough, thunderstorms will need a little bit of extra help from convective temperatures or perturbations in the flow aloft. Have about a 20 to 30 percent chance for these thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Severe storms once again cannot be ruled out with damaging straight line winds the main threat. Bulk shear looks very marginal with effective CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg. Again, high based storms are expected with DCAPE values between 1000 and 1500 J/Kg. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Have stayed with the NBM values for the forecast in the extended period. Afternoon temperatures are progged to return to the mid to upper 90s Sunday through Tuesday with no real chances for precipitation during this time. Tue night an upper level trough will dig down the Intermountain West and approach the FA bringing some suppression to the H5 heights of the combined Panhandles. This is to bring some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s to possibly lower 90s Wed onward and will also bring back some PoPs into the forecast. Tue night will be when some slight chance to chance PoPs return to the combined Panhandles as well. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 TAFs are conditionally VFR through the new 18Z period. Thunderstorms are possible at all TAF sites later this evening and through the night time hours. Some storms could be severe, and heavy rainfall will drop ceilings and visibility to MVFR, possibly IFR if a persistent core can move directly over a terminal. Later in the morning, some rouge shower activity could persist in the vicinity of the terminals, but few impacts are expected at this time. Winds speeds at the surface will increase later on tomorrow afternoon from the south. Rangel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 66 92 67 95 / 40 30 20 0 Beaver OK 68 92 68 99 / 30 30 20 10 Boise City OK 61 93 64 98 / 60 20 10 10 Borger TX 69 97 69 100 / 40 30 20 0 Boys Ranch TX 66 95 66 97 / 60 30 20 0 Canyon TX 65 92 65 94 / 40 30 20 0 Clarendon TX 67 91 67 92 / 20 20 20 0 Dalhart TX 61 93 62 97 / 60 20 10 0 Guymon OK 64 94 64 97 / 50 30 10 10 Hereford TX 66 94 66 95 / 50 20 20 0 Lipscomb TX 69 94 68 97 / 20 30 20 0 Pampa TX 67 92 68 94 / 30 30 20 0 Shamrock TX 69 94 70 95 / 10 20 20 0 Wellington TX 69 95 70 95 / 10 10 20 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...55