022
FXUS64 KAMA 072326
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The daily chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will continue
today and Saturday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The
primary hazards with any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts
and large hail. In addition to the thunderstorm threat, very hot
temperatures are expected, with widespread highs in the upper 90s
to just over 100 degrees.

So far this afternoon, temperatures have generally increased into
the 90s for most of the area with the exception being the far
southeastern Texas Panhandle where temperatures have remained in
the 80s due to showers/thunderstorms and lingering cloud cover.
Convection is now starting to develop over the higher terrain of
NM/CO and is starting to move east/southeast. As this convection
moves into the Panhandles, there should be enough instability for
strong to severe storms. Given drier low levels as the storms move
in, plenty of DCAPE is depicted by forecast soundings which
should lead to a damaging wind threat being the primary threat
with any severe thunderstorms. Latest CAM guidance suggests the
activity should wane as it moves east towards the late evening
hours. However, given higher moisture content than most models
suggest at the time of this writing, cannot rule out storms
continuing longer than guidance suggests. The limiting factor may
be the convection from this morning, so model and observational
trends will need to be monitored going into the evening hours
tonight.

Cloud cover and thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday
morning. Clear skies are forecast and slightly better WAA at the
lower levels on Saturday, temperatures should be able to reach the
100s for at least the southern half of the area. Currently am not
expecting widespread heat advisory criteria, with the exception
being Palo Duro Canyon where temperatures are forecast to top out
around 107 during the afternoon hours. Plenty of moisture will
still be in place for another day of strong to severe storms. Very
similar synoptic and mesoscale features look to remain in place
on Saturday for damaging wind gusts and large hail to be the
primary hazards. Showers and thunderstorms may continue into the
early morning hours on Sunday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Daily chances for thunderstorms continues at the beginning of the
long term forecast. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will cool down temperatures
late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures look to
rebound back above average by mid to late next week.

On Sunday, H500 high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will slide
off to the east and have less of an influence over the Southern
High Plains. The axis of the H500 ridge will still be in place
over the area with a shortwave trough located to the southwest of
the forecast area by late Sunday afternoon. Some lingering showers
and storms may continue for a few hours on Sunday morning along
with potential low level clouds due to easterly upslope winds and
plenty of theta-e advection. Additionally, a weak cold front is
forecast to stall across the central or southern Texas Panhandle
and will be a focus for storms during the late afternoon through
the evening hours. There are quite a few mesoscale features that
will need to be monitored over the coming days for the severe
thunderstorm threat for Sunday. If everything comes together, all
hazards could be in play on Sunday evening, especially as the low
level jet increases into the early evening hours. Additionally,
very high PWAT values are being depicted by forecast model
guidance and any training storms will lead to a flash flood
threat. Storms will likely continue Sunday night through Monday
morning with disturbances continuing to move across the Panhandles
with all of the moisture in place.

Showers and storms may continue on Monday afternoon and evening
and a few strong to severe storms will be possible if enough
day time heating can occur between rounds of precipitation. With
plenty of cloud cover and precipitation chances, temperatures are
expected to be cooler than average with highs in the 70s on
Monday. Additional showers and storms may continue on Tuesday
before ridging starts to move in back across the area by mid week
and temperatures look to increase back into the 90s by late next
week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Severe thunderstorms are approaching KGUY and KDHT, capable of
producing erratic and strong downdrafts. There is some uncertainty
regarding when the thunderstorms will depart the respective sites,
thus amendments may be needed. Otherwise, winds weaken tonight and
a cold front will come in from the north later tonight with a wind
shift to northerly. Thunderstorms will be possible at all sites
again tomorrow afternoon but have left mentions out of the TAF for
now given high uncertainty in timing.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74 102  66  88 /  10  10  40  30
Beaver OK                  72  97  63  81 /  30  20  50  20
Boise City OK              64  94  59  78 /  30  30  50  40
Borger TX                  75 104  67  87 /  20  20  50  30
Boys Ranch TX              72 104  65  87 /  30  20  40  40
Canyon TX                  72 102  66  89 /  10  10  30  30
Clarendon TX               74 100  67  90 /  10  10  30  30
Dalhart TX                 67 100  60  82 /  40  20  40  40
Guymon OK                  68  96  62  80 /  40  20  60  30
Hereford TX                71 103  66  90 /  10  10  30  30
Lipscomb TX                72  99  65  83 /  30  20  50  20
Pampa TX                   74 101  65  85 /  20  10  40  30
Shamrock TX                74 101  69  90 /  10   0  20  30
Wellington TX              74 102  70  95 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...52