Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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862 FXUS63 KDDC 111728 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing warming trend continues this week with temperatures expected to top the century mark in some areas Thursday. - There is a 30-50% chance for thunderstorms late Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 WV imagery indicates an upper level trough transitioning east through the Dakotas. Meanwhile, a weak upper level low is sliding southeast through the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado while a weak cold front is pushing slowly southeast through northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska. Minimal rain chances (<20%) at best are expected across portions of west central and central Kansas later this afternoon as an attendant frontal boundary to an upper level trough pushing into the Upper Midwest, stalls out in the area in question by this afternoon. Despite an extremely weak field of westerlies aloft, ample moisture within a prevailing southerly flow providing sufficient instability combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates will set the stage for potential isolated thunderstorm develop later this afternoon in vicinity of the stalled boundary. There is very low confidence for any appreciable rainfall as suggested by the HREF showing only a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding even one-hundredth of an inch in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by this evening. Essentially, a rogue storm or two cannot be ruled out. Seasonal temperatures are forecast today as prevailing southerlies help draw slightly warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures up around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. The HREF paints a widespread 60-80% probability of highs exceeding 85F this afternoon. For tonight, the HREF shows a 40-60% probability of lows falling below 65F in west central Kansas to only a 10-20% in south central Kansas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to portions of western Kansas toward the end of the week as medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough moving off the Pacific into the Desert Southwest sometime late Thursday/early Friday, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the high plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Although uncertainty abounds to timing/track of this next system, a deepening lee side trough axis in response the approaching shortwave and prevailing southerlies helping provide sufficient moisture return, will support thunderstorm development across the high plains Friday afternoon/evening. The latest NBM indicates a 30-40% probability for 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch across west central and extreme southwest Kansas by early Saturday morning. The ongoing warming trend continues into Wednesday as prevailing low level southerlies ahead of an approaching upper level ridge axis enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid/upper 20s(C). The NBM points to a widespread 80-90% probability of afternoon highs climbing above 90F with a 40-60% probability of temperatures nudging above 100F Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 An area of high pressure at the surface will move east into the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight as a trough of low pressure deepens across eastern Colorado. Scattered afternoon clouds across southwest Kansas in the 3000 to 5000ft AGL level will dissipate between 00z and 03z Wednesday. The winds will be/become south southeast at 10 knots or less by 00z Wednesday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Burgert