Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday evening)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

A relatively quiet night is in store with mostly clear skies and
southeast winds gusting up to 20mph for most of the CWA due to a
strong pressure gradient and slight mixing of the low level jet
to the surface. Temperatures will be very mild in the 60s for most
locations and dewpoints in the 50s will make for a humid start to
Friday and the end of the work week. Winds will pick up out of
the southeast up to 30-35mph under the same pressure gradient and
mixing of the low level jet to the surface due to day time
heating. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s for most of the
CWA with low 90s expected in the southern counties along the
Oklahoma border.

The main cause of concern will be again with severe weather
setting up later Friday afternoon. All models are in good
agreement on storms firing up by 4-5PM in the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles extending northward into the Liberal area. This is due
to the dryline that extends along Highway 83. Instability will be
present during this time due to the strong daytime heating and
steep lapse rates along with high CAPE values up to 2500J/kg.
There will sufficient enough low level moisture as well with the
southeast flow brining in the moist Gulf of Mexico moisture
allowing for the fuel needed to get things rolling. A developing
surface low over southeast Colorado will push eastward along with
the dryline to spark the convection along Highway 83 and through
the CWA clearing out east of the area by 10PM Friday night.
Exhaust that will help engineer the severe weather development is
modest with the jet around the upper level low centered over Utah
to extend across Arizona and northern New Mexico allowing for
upper level divergence across southwestern Kansas. Main threats
will be large hail up to baseball size and damaging wind over
60mph with a few tornados possible for the CWA east of Highway 83
to include Garden and Dodge. SPC stamps a broad slight risk for
the area for Friday afternoon with 15% wind and hail threats and
low tornado threat at 5%. Agreement with this is good and
confidence in severe weather is high as well.

Once the severe weather is through the entire CWA, expect calming
conditions for the area as skies begin to clear from west to east
and winds weaken as well behind the aforementioned surface low and
diminishing pressure gradient left in its wake less than
10-15mph. Another mild and muggy start to Saturday and the weekend
will enthrall with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s from
west to east and dewpoints in the 50s as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The aforementioned surface low discussed in the short term will
continue its eastward progression through the CWA before exiting
Saturday afternoon into central Kansas bringing thunderstorm
chances for much of the area in its wake. Severe potential is not
as likely for the region with more of the ingredients needed being
more into central and eastern portions of the state for Saturday
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect areas of rain showers and
thunder mixed in bringing some more much needed rain to the area.
This will not be a drought buster, but will be some relief and any
bit helps in the long wrong being well below average in
precipitation so far this year dating back to October. Winds will
turn from the southeast around to the northwest behind the frontal
boundary with high temperatures reaching into the mid 70s to
mid 80s before frontal passage. Sunday will start off cooler than
we have been but still mild with temperatures starting off in in
the upper 40s to mid 50s. It will be quite a tranquil day with
highs in the 70s and light northerly winds less than 10mph.

The start of next week will see a return to storm chances and
severe potential every afternoon Monday through Thursday with
return flow out of southeast. This will bring in low level
moisture advection to the CWA along with good upper level
divergence due to an upstream long wave trough that will implant
across the western part of the country bringing southwest flow to
western Kansas and a series of shortwave trough patterns that will
help aid in igniting any Storm development over the course of the
new week. Amble instability will be present with warming
temperatures and more steep lapse rates to be found across the
entire western half of the state. PoPs every afternoon will be in
the 20-30 percent coverage range with 40-50 percent coverage for
Wednesday and Thursday as being the highest probability for the
upcoming week. Monday will see low to mid 80s across the area
while the rest of the week through Friday will see mid to upper
80s and even low 90s in southern counties along the Oklahoma
border. Relative humidity values will be in the 30-40 percent
range every afternoon east of the dryline that will propagate
across western portions of the CWA coming in across the Colorado
state line where surface convergence will occur to spark any
storms, some of which, may be severe. Mild and muggy mornings will
be the norm for the entire week with low temperatures Monday in
the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the week with dewpoints in
the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. By late
afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms could develop initially
along an outflow boundary over west central Kansas and a dryline
over far southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle region.
Initially discreet storms will likely congeal into a band of
storms as they move northeast through southwest and central
Kansas. There is a heightened threat for strong/damaging wind
gusts across the area as the evening progresses, especially to the
east of Garden City and Liberal. Thunderstorms should be moving
east out of central Kansas by 06z. MVFR cigs could develop later
tonight especially from Garden City to Hays but any low cigs that
develop should diminish Saturday morning.


DDC  88  61  82  52 /  20  50  20  30
GCK  88  57  78  50 /  20  40  20  20
EHA  90  56  81  49 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  91  60  82  51 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  84  61  79  52 /  20  60  20  20
P28  89  66  91  59 /  20  40  20  30




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