375
FXUS64 KTSA 141024
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the night with mostly
clear skies, light winds, and mild conditions. The one exception
might be in northwest Arkansas near the Missouri border, where a
decaying cluster of storms could result in brief rain and thunder
within the next hour or so.

During the day today, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s
across the area, with dew points remaining elevated in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. A weak remnant boundary may allow for moisture pooling
across northeast OK, leading to locally higher dew points. Afternoon
heat indices will top out generally in the 97-103F range. A few
areas may reach heat indices as high as 105F, but will hold off on a
Heat Advisory for now given that coverage and duration of reaching
advisory criteria is in question. At any rate, caution should still
be taken for anybody spending extended time outside during the day
today. There is a low end chance of a couple of very isolated
showers or storms popping up in far northeast OK and northwest AR
during the late evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Saturday will be another hot day, with temperatures in the low to
mid 90s and afternoon heat indices generally 95-102F. A weak
shortwave trough will pass to the northwest of the area with a 10%
chance of a shower or thunderstorm in portions of northeast OK
and northwest AR. Sunday through Tuesday will feature more of the
same with highs in the low to mid 90s and generally humid but
rain-free conditions. The one exception may be portions of
southeast OK and west-central AR where there is a low (10-20%)
chance of a few afternoon or evening showers Monday and Tuesday.

By the middle of next week an anomalously strong upper level ridge
will shift into the northeast, but a trailing portion of the ridge
will extend southwest into our region. This will allow for some type
of tropical wave to impact southern Texas. Although we will be well
removed geographically from this, some of the moisture will move
north with PWAT values expected to rise. With the increased moisture
and a bit of upper level flow, there will be a slight (10-30%)
chance of a few showers and storms for the middle to end of next
week. Ensemble cluster analysis indicates that the main factor for
whether rain occurs or not is the westward extension of the upper
level high across the eastern US, with roughly a third of
individual ensemble members showing a favorable pattern for at
least some showers in the area. High temperatures may cool
slightly with the extra moisture and clouds, but will still mostly
remain at or above 90F. It`s also worth mentioning that breezy
southerly winds will develop for this period, as a deep western
trough will encourage a stout southerly pressure gradient across
the area. EPS EFI for wind shows values of 0.7 to 0.9 across the
area, meaning unusually windy for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Light winds and VFR conditions should prevail through the period.
Low to mid cloud ongoing across parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas in response to earlier convection in Kansas and
Missouri should diminish through the morning, leaving high clouds
atop the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   97  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   95  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   94  68  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   94  71  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   93  71  92  71 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   93  71  92  72 /  20  20  10  10
F10   94  69  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22