Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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638 FXUS63 KGLD 201114 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 514 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm early this evening clipping Yuma County in Colorado and Dundy County in Nebraska. Brief wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size will be possible in those areas. - There is a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon and evening for northeast Colorado and into southwest Nebraska. Wind and hail will be the main hazards near any stronger storm that develops. - Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees along and east of Highway 283 Monday and Tuesday as temperatures climb back into the upper 90s and lower 100s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Showers have been slow to develop overnight. However, there is an area of light rain/isolated thunderstorms moving off the Front Range between Pueblo and Denver that appears to be associated with the main shortwave aloft. If it holds together, and that is far from certain based on the best performing CAM with the current situation the HRRR, it would move through northeast Colorado and into southwest Nebraska later in the overnight and into Thursday morning before exiting to the north. Otherwise, some patchy fog may develop with the near-saturated surface conditions, but cloud cover and precipitation is also hindering radiational cooling, so confidence is low. Expect skies to become mostly sunny across the area by this afternoon with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Next shortwave trough rotating around the strong ridge to the east will skirt the far northwest forecast area early this evening. It is possible the storms miss the area completely. There will be a marginal risk for wind and hail associated with these storms which should exit fairly quickly to the north by mid evening. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. Upper ridge weakens over the area on Friday as the next shortwave trough moves out of Colorado in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s. Thunderstorm coverage is fairly isolated after 21z in western areas Friday afternoon. MUCAPE is also weak in that area at around 500 j/kg, with deep layer shear of 35-40 kts. Those parameters suggest a marginal severe risk at best. The isolated to widely scattered storms continue into Friday evening as the shortwave moves through. A weak front/surface trough will shift winds to the northwest overnight. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Weak ridging will build over the area by Saturday afternoon as the shortwave moves east. At the surface there will be light north winds with the trough far to the south. Any forcing would have to come from a weak perturbation working through the ridge, and models just not showing much. As a result, will go with a dry forecast. Temperatures continue to warm with highs in the middle 90s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1254 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Current runs of the GFS/ECMWF continue to amplified 500mb ridge working northward from the southern to the central Rockies. This will occur on Sunday into the beginning of next week, providing a W/NW flow aloft. By the midweek timeframe, the ridge amplification stretches northward through the Rockies, with a slight eastward trek towards the Plains region. The amplification/movement, changes the flow aloft to northwesterly. A few weak shortwaves will traverse the eastern side of the ridge during the forecast period, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours. At the surface, guidance brings a couple troughs/boundaries off the Front Range and through the central Plains by the afternoon/evening. Weak instability will have a 15-20% chance for rw/trw. Going into Tuesday, the second boundary does settle south of the cwa, with a low extending of the western portion. This front/boundary will be the focus for increased RH along/in the vicinity, aided by winds shifting more E/SE. The instability will trigger higher pops (30- 40%) area-wide Tue-Thu. Timing/coverage of the rw/trw chances do differ each day between the GFS/ECMWF. This will be do to a strong ridge rolling south behind the front, and eventually pushing east. The extent of the ridge axis nosing south into the Kansas area could push high RH further south and limit instability, or focus it more into southern and western portions of the cwa. Overall, chances for rw/trw do increase as the week progresses, but the other concerns will be the return to hot, above normal temperatures area-wide. For temps, the latter portion of the upcoming weekend into next week will see hot conditions return area-wide. Daytime highs on Sunday will range in the mid to upper 90s. Monday and Tuesday, upper 90s to low 100s. Wednesday and Thursday, mid to upper 90s. With these expected highs around the area, concerns for high heat indices will crop up. Currently looking at the Monday and Tuesday timeframe where indices along/east of Highway 83 could reach into the low to mid 100s and possibly need a Heat Advisory as a result. Will be monitoring for further westward expansion. The remainder of the extended period will have indices at or below forecasted highs aided by lower after RH readings. Overnight lows will range mainly in the 60s for the entire period, but locales along/east of Highway 83 could only see the 70F mark a few nights. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Low ceilings will gradually lift this morning with VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK by 18-19z. Southerly surface winds will rapidly increase early this morning and gust 25-35 kts through this afternoon, diminishing to 20-25 kts this evening. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...024