Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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292 FXUS63 KSGF 250854 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 354 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant weather expected today and tomorrow with below normal temperatures in the mid 70s and mostly sunny skies. - Rain chances increase (40-70%) late in the week due to remnants of Tropical Storm Helene. There is the potential for widespread and prolonged rainfall with this system by Friday and Saturday as well as gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Enjoy today and tomorrow as the dreary cloudy and rainy weather clears out for the next 48 hours as surface high pressure settles in. Very pleasant weather expected with highs in the mid to upper 70s with light northerly winds. Lows will be in the lower 50s tonight but will be a bit warmer in the upper 50s on Thursday night as clouds start to build in ahead of our next low pressure system. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Thursday night is when we`ll start to see the effects of Tropical Storm Helene. Latest model guidance is still showing the upper level- low ingesting the Tropical Storm by later this week. Though, models have shifted the path a bit further to the east. Therefore, POPs have decreased across most of the area on Thursday, but have remained elevated (40-70%) for Friday and Saturday. Areas along and east of Highway 63 will see the most rain out of this system. Looking at 72 hr probabilistic precipitation amounts valid for Saturday morning, the Joplin area has about a 20% chance of receiving 1 inch of rain while the Springfield area has a 40% chance and the West Plains area has a 60% chance. Jumping up to the 3 inch threshold, we can see that the trend continues. Joplin has a 5% chance, Springfield has a 12% chance, and West Plains has a 40% chance. With a tropical airmass in place, this will create a favorable environment for localized flooding to occur as these showers will be efficient rainfall producers. Though, it`s still too early to latch onto exact rainfall amounts. Stay up to date with the latest forecast as the path of Tropical Storm Helene continues to be evaluated. Winds will also be breezy on Friday and Saturday with the strong pressure gradients introduced by this system. Wind gusts could be around 25-30 mph at times especially over far southeastern Missouri. There is high confidence in temperatures remaining near to below average through the long term period. Highs will be in the 70s for the next several days with lows in the 50s. Expect mostly cloudy skies through the weekend as the low pressure system lingers over the Ohio River Valley through Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Patchy fog will filter into extreme southwest Missouri tonight. Visibilities may drop as low as 1 SM in some areas where fog becomes dense. Ceilings will hover around IFR early this morning before fog mixes out by late morning. Then, VFR for the rest of the day with light northerly winds. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Soria LONG TERM...Soria AVIATION...Soria