177
FXUS64 KFWD 132339
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
639 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening Through Sunday Morning/

After a warm afternoon where high temperatures have generally peaked
in the low-upper 90s, an overall quiet night is expected across
North and Central Texas overnight into tomorrow morning. Morning
lows are progged to bottom out in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the
region. Over early Saturday, Tropical Storm Ileana will make
landfall in the southern tip of Baja California. The storm will
eventually move along the Bay of California, closer to the Mexican
State of Sonora by the end of the weekend.

While Ileana will not have much of an impact this far east, its
upper level energy and moisture are expected to transit east along
the periphery of the broad Southern Plains ridge tomorrow. With the
remnants of Francine still lingering over Arkansas/Tennessee,
northwesterly winds aloft will push that energy across the region.
In response, an influx of upper-level cloud cover is expected
beginning tomorrow morning. Unfortunately the increased cloud
cover will have little impacts on our afternoon temperatures as
the aforementioned ridge will continue to build in atop North and
Central Texas. Expect Saturday afternoon temperatures to peak in
the low-upper 90s, which is up to around 10 degrees above normal
for early-mid September. Lingering dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
will keep heat indices elevated, closer to around 99-103 degrees
for a majority of the region (aside from the northeastern counties
where cooler temperatures will keep heat indices <95). Make sure
to practice heat safety and stay hydrated when outdoors.

Very low rain chances continue to be possible for areas generally
east of I-35 later tomorrow as the increased energy from Ileana
moves overhead and interacts with a lingering quasi-stationary
weak surface boundary draped across portions of North and Central
Texas, Current guidance continues to highlight the best chances
for rain confined across areas east of I-35/south of I-20 where
better moisture is located. While majority of CAM guidance is not
too keen on bringing much precipitation in our southeastern zones
tomorrow afternoon and evening, a handful of ensemble members and
deterministic models continue to highlight precipitation in the
aforementioned areas through tomorrow night. As such, have
persisted with low rain chances tomorrow afternoon and evening,
with <20% probability in our southeast zones and unmentionable 10%
chances elsewhere near and east of I-35.

Any rain that forms will end overnight into Sunday, leaving behind
another muggy morning with a bit less cloud cover. Sunday morning
lows will drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Week/

Weather conditions through the extended period will be much more
typical of mid-September as we start the upcoming work week.
Afternoon highs will remain just above average, ranging in the low
to mid 90s. A few locations out west could even reach into the
upper 90s, leading to the return of summer-like conditions across
all of North and Central Texas through the foreseeable future.

As for rain chances, they appear to remain slim to none as we
move into the second half of the month. This is due to large-scale
subsidence across the Southern Plains, resulting in the hot and
dry weather pattern we will soon be experiencing. The only real
point of interest in this forecast is the very low chance (<10%)
for isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. We tend to see
this low potential for convection while under the influence of
northwesterly flow aloft thanks to weak upper level ridging. On
top of this, Tropical Storm Ileana - currently positioned over the
southern tip of the Baja Peninsula - may augment any potential
for showers and storms. Given how low these chances are, we have
opted to leave any mention of this out of the forecast for now.
Subsequent forecasts may need to reassess this potential and
determine if such potential is high enough to warrant the addition
of mentionable PoPs across portions of North Texas on Sunday.

Looking beyond, there seems to be some hints at a potential
pattern change toward the end of the week into next weekend.
Confidence remains quite low given how far out this forecast
scenario is, so continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Southerly to southeasterly winds less than 10 kts are expected to
continue through the period at all TAF sites. However temporary
wind shifts to either a more W-WNW and/or E-ENE direction are
possible in D10 tomorrow afternoon in the presence of a weak
nearby surface boundary. Speeds should be light enough to
preclude a flow change, so have kept southerly winds prevailing
with this TAF package. An influx of mid-upper clouds from TS
Ileana are expected to move over the TAF sites overnight and
tomorrow, but VFR will prevail through the next 24-30 hours.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  96  74  95  74 /   0  10  10   5   5
Waco                73  98  73  98  72 /   0  10  10  10   0
Paris               65  90  68  91  68 /   0  10  10   5   5
Denton              71  97  72  95  71 /   0   5   5   5   5
McKinney            70  95  71  94  71 /   0  10  10   5   5
Dallas              73  97  74  97  74 /   0  10  10   5   5
Terrell             69  96  70  94  70 /   0  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           73  98  73  97  73 /   0  20  20   5   5
Temple              73  98  73  99  72 /   0  10  10  10   0
Mineral Wells       72  97  71  98  70 /   0   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$