135
FXUS64 KLUB 261122
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
622 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

As the upper level shortwave trough continues to push eastward early
this morning, it will swing a very weak cold front through the
FA. As of 1:30 AM CDT the front was currently making its way into
the northern Texas Panhandle. Models are in agreement with this
front entering the FA early this morning and pushing completely
through by late morning. Behind the front, westerly winds will
begin to veer out of the northwest becoming breezy around 15 to
20 mph. Across the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas
Panhandle winds will begin to diminish through the afternoon.
While areas on the Caprock can expect winds to remain elevated as
they begin to shift out of the west. The slightly cooler air mass
will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previous
days. However, you should take the word "cooler" with a grain of
salt as warm westerly winds and clear skies will help boost high
temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s. Some locations off
the Caprock may even see temperatures in the upper 90s to triple
digits. As we head into the overnight hours winds will begin to
diminish under mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Very few changes to the long term forecast this morning as this week
is still shaping up to be an active weather week. Upper-level
heights will begin to increase over the forecast area on Monday as a
ridge builds into the Great Basin. At the surface, a backdoor cold
front will slide through the forecast area Monday morning switching
our winds around to the northeast. Despite these northeasterly winds
temperatures won`t cool with high temperatures still peaking in the
low to mid 90s. Winds will continue to veer through the day as
surface high pressure moves into Oklahoma. These southeasterly winds
will help to begin the moisture advection from the Gulf back into
the forecast area. The ridge axis will expand over the forecast area
on Tuesday but Gulf moisture will continue to stream northward into
the forecast area. A shortwave should move through the ridge Tuesday
afternoon and with the dryline located somewhere across the South
Plains convective development is expected. While mid and upper flow
won`t be overly strong (wind speeds top out around 50 kts) the wind
profile will veer with height which will still allow for effective
bulk shear values of around 60 kts. This shear combined with MLCAPE
values approaching 4000 J/kg will be more than sufficient for
supercell development along and east of the dryline.

The ridge axis will remain overhead through Thursday morning before
shifting east. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday with a
dryline remaining over the forecast area and another ripple rotating
through the ridge. Convective details are more uncertain due to the
previous days convection but another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible as the overall environment doesn`t
change much. Upper-level flow will become southwesterly Thursday
through the weekend and with the dryline continuing to hang around
our forecast area each afternoon and evening will have the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms but the exact details for each
day will depend on what happens the previous day in regards to the
mesoscale details. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Check
density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...12