369
FXUS64 KLUB 120710
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
210 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

 - A few thunderstorms possible near the NM state line this
   evening.

 - The warming trend continues into next week, but slight chances
   of thunderstorms persist every evening through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Northerly flow on the back side of the upper low is helping keep the
FA quiet this morning. Surface flow is light with winds out of the
south to southeast at 5 mph or less. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s
off the Caprock will allow for the potential for fog development by
sunrise and should dissipate by mid morning. Widespread dense fog is
not expected, but locally dense fog will be possible in low lying
areas. Upper flow will shift more northwesterly through the day as
the upper low pushes off to the east and upper ridging moves over
New Mexico/Colorado. This could allow for terrain induced convection
to enter our western zones late this afternoon/evening. Storms that
enter the FA should dissipate fairly quickly once the sun sets.
Severe storms are not expected, though some may produce gusty winds
in excess of 45 mph. The rest of the night should be quiet with lows
in the low to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

We will see hot temperatures through next week with chances of
thunderstorms every evening through the weekend. The region will be
sandwiched between an upper trough to the east and an upper high
over northern Mexico. The upper high is expected to move northward
over southern New Mexico and western portions of Texas by Sunday.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s this weekend. Although
subsidence over the region should hinder storm development, with
temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 60s, capping could be
broken and diurnally driven thunderstorms could develop with any low
level focus such as a lingering outflow boundary. Models indicate a
first round of thunderstorms developing late Friday afternoon just
west of the NM/TX border and move east over the South Plains and a
second round developing over portions of the Texas Panhandle in the
evening and move southeast through the far southern Texas Panhandle
and portions of the Rolling Plains. Severe thunderstorms with the
ability of producing large hail and strong winds gusts are possible
with current soundings showing MUCAPE values just over 4000 J/kg for
Friday evening. Similar thunderstorm chances return Saturday and
Sunday evening.

Models disagree with the upper level pattern for next week. Some
models shift the upper high a little east just over the region where
it will stall through the latter half of the week. If this upper
pattern occurs, subsidence will prevail and keep conditions dry.
Other models indicate the high breaking down as an upper trough
develops over western CONUS and tracks east over the Central Plains
by mid-week. This would bring southwesterly flow aloft and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday. As which upper level pattern will
occur is uncertain, NBM slight PoPs were kept for Tuesday. Either
pattern will keep temperatures hot next week with highs in the 90s
and possibly reaching triple digits for some areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at LBB and PVW. MVFR CIGs and VIS will
be possible at CDS around sunrise through mid morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51