Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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874 FXUS65 KABQ 041139 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 439 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 411 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 - Many rivers across northwestern and north central New Mexico have peaked and will continue to fall below bankfull stages through Wednesday and Thursday. - Minor winter travel impacts will skirt the Colorado border Wednesday night into Thursday morning, favoring Raton Pass. - Drier conditions will persist for the remainder of the region through the rest of this week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 High clouds will continue to stream across the state tonight ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance from the west. Some clearing is expected across portions of northeastern New Mexico overnight, which could allow for patchy fog development in valley locations where recent rainfall has left saturated soils in its wake. Confidence in fog development is on the low side at this time as guidance still continues to hint at limited potential for reduced visibilities. The aforementioned disturbance will cross into the central Rockies by the afternoon, bringing with it breezy west- northwesterly winds across much of central and western New Mexico. Expect sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, particularly across higher terrain. As the upper low continues its trek eastward during the evening hours, precipitation will remain confined to northernmost zones. A combination of modest mid-level moisture, orographic lift, and a strengthening backdoor front will allow for a brief period of snow along the Raton Ridge. Light accumulations are possible near Raton Pass and portions of US-64 into early Thursday morning. Current guidance suggests most likely amounts of 1-2 inches, with reasonable locally higher-end amounts of 2-3 inches. Widespread impacts are not anticipated, but brief visibility restrictions and slick travel conditions could develop. Elsewhere, precipitation chances will remain minimal. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 The remainder of the period will be pretty benign as we transition to generally quieter and drier conditions. A weak upper-level disturbance may bring in limited moisture and instability by late Friday into Saturday, leading to low-end rain chances. Guidance also continues to show disagreement in regards to the evolution of a possible cutoff low near Baja California. The GFS seems to be the outlier here, with the broader consensus favoring a weaker system and predominately dry conditions across the state. High temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal, while lows trend slightly above. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 VFR conditions prevail this morning. A thin layer of cirrus continues to exit eastward, with mostly clear skies across much of the Land of Enchantment. Clear skies could allow for isolated patchy fog along the northwestern highlands and northeastern highlands early Wednesday morning. Similar to the previous TAF cycle, chances were too low to include any mention of fog at any terminals. Calm winds this morning will shift to the west- southwest by the afternoon to around 8-12 knots, with occasional gusts up to 20-25 knots. By sunset, winds will decrease and shift to become more northwesterly behind the passage of an upper-level disturbance. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1223 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026 No significant fire weather concerns are expected over the next week. Periods of poor ventilation will be the primary concern across western and central areas today and Thursday, with more widespread issues by Friday into the weekend. There is a slight chance for precipitation across north-central and northeastern New Mexico late today, but generally dry conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday. Breezy conditions across northern areas will gradually subside by Friday. An upper-level system may move through the region Friday into the early weekend, but precipitation will be limited. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 34 55 37 / 5 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 57 25 57 27 / 10 20 0 0 Cuba............................ 56 30 54 33 / 5 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 58 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 57 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 29 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 62 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 65 35 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 61 30 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 64 29 64 31 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 68 34 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 50 26 51 29 / 20 20 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 56 33 53 35 / 5 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 59 31 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 30 52 33 / 5 20 0 0 Red River....................... 47 23 45 24 / 5 30 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 52 15 49 15 / 0 20 0 0 Taos............................ 56 25 54 25 / 5 20 0 0 Mora............................ 60 28 53 27 / 0 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 63 31 59 32 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 34 55 34 / 0 5 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 31 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 63 39 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 35 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 67 34 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 65 36 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 66 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 65 36 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 66 34 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 63 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 63 37 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 69 40 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 32 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 60 34 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 61 32 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 64 29 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 59 34 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 32 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 34 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 65 41 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 62 37 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 56 31 48 29 / 0 40 30 0 Raton........................... 59 31 54 28 / 0 30 10 0 Springer........................ 63 31 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 60 32 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 60 40 54 34 / 0 10 50 0 Roy............................. 59 36 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 66 42 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 65 42 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 43 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 68 45 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 69 44 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 44 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 67 47 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 71 42 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 72 39 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23