Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 150511

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 313 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2018

Primary concern for the remainder of the afternoon is the fire
weather threat that remains for much of the region, particularly
those counties in the western portions of the forecast area
currently under a Red Flag Warning. Although sustained wind
speeds have remained just shy of criteria, the very dry atmosphere
(RH values dropping into the teens this afternoon), coupled with
the very dry fuels, have allowed for rapid fire growth. Fire
weather concerns will carry over into tomorrow, specifically for
NW MO, but look to remain under critical thresholds.

Surface high pressure will continue to mosey southward, opening
the door for low pressure to move into the Great Plains by late
tomorrow. Precipitation, most likely all in the form of liquid,
will overspread the forecast area overnight Thursday into early
Friday, although the QPF is expected to range from around a
quarter of an inch up to about a half of an inch. As the low
skirts across the area, it`ll weaken with little additional
precipitation expected as it traverses through overnight Friday
into early Saturday. The next chance for precipitation appears to
arrive overnight Sunday into early Monday as another low
approaches, but there`s ample opportunity for deviations to this
forecast in the day 6 to day 7 time period. With the exception of
tomorrow`s high temperatures, expect generally seasonable temps to
prevail through the rest of the period.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2018

Only forecast concern tonight is potential wind shear with W/SW
winds around 40 to 45 kts around 1000 to 1500 feet through sunrise.
Winds at the surface should stay around 10 kts.




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