Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 191938

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Issued at 238 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

Rain showers will continue to gradually dissipate this afternoon
as the surface low now over south central MO continues to shift
eastward, and its associated deformation zone weakens. A few
additional light showers and perhaps a few flurries are possible
this evening through the early overnight hours as a trailing upper
wave drops through eastern SD/NE and into far northwest MO, but
the shortwave trough will become embedded in the broader upper-
level flow overnight, weakening any impact from the system as it
moves into more subsident air across MO.

Lingering cloud cover and northerly flow will keep temperatures
below normal on Tuesday, then a warming trend will begin Wednesday
and continue through the rest of the work week. Recent rainfall
should help fuels start to green up and keep soils damp for a few
days, possibly keeping fire danger in check this week even as
temperatures start to rise. The next potential for impactful
weather will come this weekend as another trough pushes lee-side
cyclogenesis out into the Plains. Currently, it appears the low
will take a more northerly track than today`s system and the
heaviest precipitation will remain north of the CWA, but will have
to continue to monitor as models have continued to shift the
track over the last several iterations.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

Showers will continue to diminish in intensity over the next hour,
but may linger at MKC and MCI through at least 19z. Primarily low-
end MVFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon, except over
the next hour or so at MCI where the heavier rain has temporarily
scattered out the lowest ceilings. Gusty northeast winds should
also begin to diminish slightly over the next few hours, but may
remain sustained at 12 to 15 kts through this evening. Eventually,
MVFR ceilings should scatter out to reveal a higher-based deck
around 4-5 kft for the evening and overnight hours.




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