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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170855
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
355 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Calmer day today. Gusty winds slowly dissipate through the morning
hours.

- Another storm system moves through the region overnight tonight
continuing through Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms are
possible primarily along and south of the I-70 corridor during the
overnight hours (11PM to 5AM). Primary hazards include large hail
(1.75"+) and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A much quieter day is expected as the storm system that brought
yesterday`s severe storms continues to move off to the north and
east. The pressure gradient remains strong which has kept the gusty
winds through the night. Westerly winds gusting around 20-25 MPH
slowly dissipate through the day as the system moves further from
the area. Midlevel ridging bring dry and clear skies back to the
area. However, this serves as only a momentary break in the action
as another storm system is expected to pass through the area
overnight tonight into Thursday.

An upper level shortwave trough traverses the Rockies initiating a
leeward surface low across the OK panhandle. A strong midlevel push
of cooler air from interior Canada strengthens cyclogenesis and
frontogenesis enabling the low to deepen quickly. This system is
expected to make its way through the area overnight Wednesday into
Thursday. Mostly clear skies thanks to the previously mentioned
midlevel ridging allows for fairly rapid surface cooling after
sunset Wednesday. This creates an inversion forming a CAP. This CAP
is further enhanced by midlevel warm air advection across the warm
sector. This restricts anticipated convection to elevated storms;
however, that does not nullify potential severe threats. As the
system moves into the region, this warm sector settles across areas
along and south of the I-70 corridor bringing chances for severe
weather primarily between the 11PM and 5AM. Any cells that develop
in this warm sector pose a potential to be strong to severe. Strong
shear, high MUCAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and the LLJ
exiting into the area point towards the opportunity for large hail
(>1.75") and damaging winds. After sunrise, instability looks to
recharge across areas south of US-50. This could present further
opportunities for increased convection resulting in strong to severe
storms with damaging winds and hail. However, the front looks to
push through the region by midday Thursday keeping the window for
strong to severe storms fairly small and pushing the more favorable
environment into eastern MO. More widespread showers form on the
cool side of the cold front; hopefully bringing some much needed
rain to much of the region.

Northerly flow dominates once the front moves through ushering lower
temperatures for the weekend. Highs settle into the mid to upper 50s
and low 60s for Saturday and Sunday respectively. Synoptic scale
high pressure keeps the weather quiet over the weekend. Extended
guidance shows that this dip to "cooler" temperatures is merely
temporary as the surface high moves east of the area. Winds turn
back out the south vaulting warm air and moisture back northward.
Temperatures early next week move back into the 70s. Monday looks to
be the next best chance for rain as another Pacific front wanders
across the Plains. Long term guidance suggests that the springtime
pattern of strong temperature fluctuations with intermittent chances
of showers and storms is firmly established and looks to continue
for the forseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Gusty VFR conditions continue through the overnight. Winds
remain generally out of the west with winds/gusts slowly
subsiding through the day. Winds become light towards sunset
before shifting out of the ESE accelerating as another frontal
system approaches toward the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel