Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 110509

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1109 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Issued at 957 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Updated the forecast to beef up the chances of precipitation in
our far northeast CWA and increase snow amounts to about one half
inch. Increased wind gusts to even more than the increase made
earlier this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 648 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Updated the forecast for the next couple of hours this evening for
potential sprinkles in our western CWA, and should not amount to
much if we get anything making it to the ground at all.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Satellite water vapor imagery showing clipper system in
SWRN SDak advancing southeast towards our CWA. 12Z upper air
analysis had 30-40 meter 500 mb height falls ahead of the wave,
with strong 90 meter rises behind the wave in western
Montana/Eastern WA. Associated surface front has been sliding
through the CWA today and at 18Z stretched from Albion to Beloit.
WSR-88D has been detecting mid level cloud returns much of the
day, but little to nothing reaching the ground up to this point.

Question tonight is, will we get any precipitation and what will
that fall as? Deep layer moisture appears to be lacking as the
clipper moves through the area tonight. It does look to be a bit
better for the northeast CWA as compared to the southwest. 12Z NAM
has trended down a little with the latest run but still squeezes
out a little QPF in the northeast. Rest of the model suite in
agreement. As far as P-type, forecast soundings start off with
rain around midnight in the north and then transition to R/S mix
and eventually all snow by sunrise. Really don`t think this is
going to amount to much in the way of accumulation of either rain
or snow.

Winds are expected to stay up tonight and into the daytime on
Sunday as the surface pressure gradient remains tight with low
pressure sliding to our southeast and a 1035 mb high pressure
pushing in from the northwest. Cooler air will continue to filter
in behind the cold front and highs on Sunday should be 10 to 20
degrees cooler than those seen today.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Quiet weather expected for the most part for the upcoming work
week. Looking at the upper levels...starting Monday morning...a
high amplitude ridge is progged to build in over the Rockies, with
low pressure digging into the Great Lakes. Both the EC and the GFS
try to bring a wave through the ridge and into the Plains on
Tuesday but it really minors out. So for the most part we will be
sitting under a ridge for several days. The next upstream low
pressure finally moves onto the Pacific coast by Thu morning,
pushing the ridge axis east and over our CWA. Models then differ
on whether or not to eject any shortwaves ahead of the main upper
low which hangs west into next weekend. For now will just go with
Superblend solution regarding any small chances of precip late
next week. As far as temps go, it should be seasonal Mon and Tue
before a nice warming trend Wed-Fri as the ridge builds in over
the tip of us.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

A clipper system crossing the plains was producing light snow east
of the terminals early tonight, and this precipitation is not
expected to impact KGRI or KEAR. Winds will remain strong behind a
cold front with gusts near 30kts through the night and into the
day Sunday before gradually subsiding toward evening as the
surface gradient relaxes. Cloud heights have been variable between
MVFR and VFR and a general MVFR ceiling is forecast through much
of the TAF period before clouds scatter late Sunday.





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