819
FXUS63 KGID 061746
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances return to the local area late this
  afternoon through tonight as a cluster of storms rolling off
  the high plains moves in to the central plains. Heavy
  rainfall, hail to the size of golf balls and severe wind gusts
  will all be possible...focused mainly across areas along and
  west of Highway 281.

- Additional periodic thunderstorm chances exist across at least
  parts of the local area all week, with another chance for some
  severe weather possible Monday afternoon and evening, with
  less certainty beyond Monday regarding any severe
  potential/timing.

- Temperature-wise: Very "normal" overall temperatures (by
  early-July standards) are expected, with highs most days mid
  80s-low 90s, and lows most nights somewhere in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Overall, a quiet night across the local area as mainly clear
skies and light winds prevailed across the region. While so far
no fog has developed, maintained a small chance for some patchy
fog in mainly low lying and sheltered areas through around 9
AM...but by no means is widespread dense fog anticipated.

For later today, the main focus will shift west where an upper
level disturbance crossing the Rockies is anticipated to spark a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the high plains
during the afternoon hours. While we have some very small pops
in the forecast across our western and northern counties late
this afternoon, all signs are pointing towards a later evening
event, with the storms moving from the High plains during the
early evening hours, and possible not even reaching the local
area until 8-10 PM.

Ahead of this activity, instability will build through the
afternoon hours and the atmosphere will be ripe for some severe
storms by early evening as steep low level lapse rates and
plenty of instability will be in place. Given the later timing
of the responsible upper level disturbance, the greatest chance
for some stronger long lived storms and organized clusters will
be to our west, with the severe potential quickly waning late
in the night as it reaches roughly the Highway 281 corridor.
Therefore the greatest hail threat (up to golf balls) and
possible isolated TOR threat will be limited to our far western
counties...with more of a severe wind threat being realized as
the remaining storms head eastward overnight. Heavy rainfall
will also be possible under these conditions, and could see a
rapid 1-3 inches of rainfall with the stronger storms, which
could lead to some localized flooding given the fairly saturated
soils across the region.

Yet another mid/upper level disturbance will cross the plains on
Monday, which should again act as a trigger for thunderstorm
activity beginning across the high plains earlier in the day,
and reaching the local area by mid to late afternoon, before
progressing eastward. Again severe weather will be possible
Monday afternoon, with strong instability and appreciable
vertical wind shear in place to support severe weather. While
the focus of the strongest storms will be across the high
plains, a few severe storms (with hail once again potentially
reaching the size of golf balls) will be possible across just
about the entire area during the afternoon through mid-evening
hours Monday.

Thereafter...continued (messy) mainly westerly flow is expected
through the end of the week with additional thunderstorm
chances and near seasonal temperatures prevailing. At this point
it is still too early to assess the severe potential and timing
each day, but the current forecast has at least a chance for
thunderstorms across parts of the local area each day through
the end of the week and into at least the start of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered-BKN MVFR cumulus is possible over the next couple of
hours before cumulus rises above MVFR. Have included at TEMPO
group for this off and on potential. A scattered line of storms
could move in from the northwest and impact KGRI and KEAR
during the afternoon hours. It is still a little uncertain if
the storms will make it. Have included a PROB30 group for this
potential. Around midnight, a line of storms is expected to move
in from the west, first impacting KEAR, then KGRI. It is
uncertain how strong this line of storms will be (could be gusty
winds) or how organized it will be. Have kept a PROB30 group
due to lingering uncertainty, but a prevailing group may end up
being needed. The storms are expected to exit the TAF sites
during the early morning hours on Monday, with SCT-BKN mid-high
level clouds through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and east-northeasterly through the afternoon
hours. Winds become light and variable overnight (outside of any
thunderstorm). Southerly winds strengthen to around 8-10kts by
the late morning hours on Monday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Davis