122
FXUS63 KGID 062347
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong-severe storms are possible across Phillips and
  Rooks county through the evening hours.

- An MCS is expected to move into western portions of the area
  during late evening- overnight hours though uncertainty
  remains if these storms will be strong-severe due ongoing
  thunderstorms.

- Strong to severe storms are possible across the area Monday
  evening-night as an MCS moves through the area. Damaging wind
  gusts and large hail are possible with these storms.

- Active weather continues through the rest of the forecast
  period, with chances for storms (15-50%) each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

This evening and tonight....

Strong to Severe thunderstorms have developed and tracked across
far southwestern and northeastern portions of the area from the
remnants of an MCS that originated across northern Nebraska.
The strongest storm tracked through Gosper and Furnas counties
producing hail up to baseball sized. As these storms move into
north central Kansas, additional severe thunderstorm development
may occur across Rooks and Phillips county as they are on the
eastern edge of more favorable shear. Additionally, scattered
showers and storms have developed along the outflow boundary
across central portions of the area, but these have remained
weak so far. This boundary will continue to push southeast
through the evening hours, with additional development possible
along the outflow boundary.

Models have struggled greatly in their depiction of storms
today, with models originally expecting the MCS to dissipate
before it reached the forecast area. This brings uncertainty to
tonight`s thunderstorm threat as the environment behind the
ongoing storms is cooler and more stable. Thunderstorms are
currently developing across eastern Colorado and Wyoming. These
storms are expected to form into an MCS capable of large hail
and damaging wind gusts this evening as they track into western
Nebraska. The MCS is expected to enter western portions of the
forecast area during the late evening- overnight hours. The
strength of this MCS will be determined by how much the
atmosphere recovers this evening post-storms. If the atmosphere
is able to recover, with CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/Kg, it
would likely support the MCS persisting into the forecast area
at strong-severe strength, weakening as it moves further east
due to weaker shear/increasing CIN. Tend to think that this is
unlikely given the lingering storms and cloud coverage. If the
atmosphere is unable to recover, the MCS would likely fall below
severe strength by the time it enters western portions of the
area. Regardless of strength, the MCS will weaken as it move
east across the area overnight.

Monday...

Scattered thunderstorms from the overnight MCS will exit eastern
portions of the area during the Monday morning hours. Highs will
climb into the 80s across south central Nebraska and into the
low 90s across north central Kansas. An shortwave trough
traversing through the southwesterly flow aloft will result in
thunderstorm development over eastern CO/WY Monday afternoon.
The storms will again develop into a MCS capable of damaging
wind gusts and large hail as it moves through western Nebraska.
Additional thunderstorm development is possible along a cold
front in north central Nebraska from the aforementioned
shortwave. Instability and shear will be stronger than today,
with CAPE values over 2000J/Kg and shear over 30kts. This will
support the MCS maintaining severe strength as it moves into
western portions of the area. Given the timing of the storms
(late evening/overnight) storms will weaken as they move further
east overnight and encounter increasing CIN. How far east there
is a severe threat is uncertain, with the entire forecast area
in at least a marginal risk and a slight/enhanced for western
portions of the area where confidence in severe potential is
higher.

Tuesday Onwards...

The shortwave trough will move into the Midwest on Tuesday, as
ridging strengthens over the Southwest, placing the area under
northwesterly flow aloft Tuesday and Wednesday. A few scattered
storms are possible during the evening-overnight hours each day,
though any details remain uncertain at this time. A stronger
shortwave trough will break down the ridge as it moves into the
Great Plains on Thursday. This looks to be the day of highest
concern for severe potential in the long range, as forecast
soundings show robust instability Thursday afternoon. Cooler
weather returns on Friday and Saturday as troughing resides over
the area, with scattered chances for storms and highs in the
70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Storms are expected to move in from the west during the late
evening to overnight hours. There remains uncertainty on how
widespread these storms will be, so have maintained a PROB30
group for the most likely time of arrival of these storms. If
storms are stronger than currently anticipated, sub VFR
conditions may be possible in storms. Rain is expected to end by
the early morning hours on Monday. There is a chance for another
round of thunderstorms Monday afternoon, but it will depend how
storms overnight evolve, and confidence is not high enough to
include a PROB30 group at this time. SCT-BKN mid to high level
clouds are expected throughout the TAF period.

Winds will become light and variable around sunset, continuing
into the mid morning hours on Monday. Winds will become
southeasterly and strengthen during the late morning hours on
Monday, with sustained winds around 10kts during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis