Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGID 200929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
429 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Main issue for today will be how fast the stratus clears. I am
going more pessimistic with clearing speed compared to general
model guidance, judging by recent general model performance of
stratus prediction. This will in turn keep temperatures a bit
more, and I have gone lower than initialized high temperatures
produced by our Superblend and have gone closer to MAV and MET
guidance. I have an inkling that I might still be too warm as both
the HRRR and RAP indicate that we might only top out in the lower
40s as opposed to the mid 40s that I have predicted for today, but
this is overall fairly minor.

As a surface ridge moves in tonight, expect wind to drop
dramatically. I favor MOS Guidance for Ord in situations like
these and have gone that direction. Low temperatures will
generally be in the 20s, but this will depend on stratus being
gone, and clearing should occur by tonight with expected

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

General warming trend through the work week, with northwest flow
in advance of the approaching ridge. Then a bit more of a
cooldown after the ridge axis pulls east, but still spring-like
for the rest of the forecast. Kept some thunder in for Friday
night, which continues to look a little more likely with time with
increased confidence that there will be enough elevated
instability to support this.

I increased wind speeds on Friday, but in spite of this, we may be
less likely for fire weather issues as the wind will be more
south/southeast instead of southwest, and with potentially some
sky cover around as well. Dewpoints may wind up being too high as
sky cover could help prevent very deep mixing. We will have to
closely monitor this as we get closer to Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Ceilings will be the biggest issue and lowest confidence. Some
evidence of LIFR ceilings developing upstream, but models do not
seem to be picking up on this very well for the overnight.




SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Heinlein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.