538
FXUS63 KGID 111128
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some isolated to scattered showers and non-severe storms look
  to linger into the morning hours today across eastern portions
  of the area...but for most, today looks dry. Another chance
  for storms returns this evening-overnight...can`t rule out
  some of those storms being strong-severe. Damaging winds and
  heavy rainfall look to be the main threats.

- Current forecast for this weekend is dry. Saturday has the
  potential to be a pretty nice...with diminishing cloud cover,
  light winds, and highs in the low 80s for most. Sunday highs
  climb back closer to 90 degrees.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances return to the forecast as we get
  into the new work week, with the best chances (around 40
  percent) currently focused on the Tue evening-night and Wed
  evening-night time frames.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Currently...

Following a period of more organized thunderstorms yesterday
afternoon-evening, spots of more scattered activity have been
gradually shifting east across the forecast area overnight...with
the latest, very narrow band of activity making its way across
areas mainly north of I-80 and east of HWY 281. This activity
has been driven primarily by increased lift in advance of a mid-
level shortwave disturbance/trough axis crossing the Central/Nrn
Plains...with this latest narrow band tied closest to the main
trough axis itself. Elsewhere across the CONUS, upper air and
satellite data show an overall low-amplitude pattern...broad
high pressure across the south, with embedded shortwave
disturbances spread across central/northern portions. Outside of
the disturbance currently making its way across the immediate
region...the next one of interest for our forecast area is
digging into the Nrn Rockies/central Canada. Satellite imagery
also showing that while the main mid-upper level clouds with the
disturbance are sliding east with time...a batch of lower level
stratus has been sinking south...MVFR ceilings have moved into
the ODX/BVN sites. At the surface, an overall weak low pressure
system continues to gradually slide east through the
area...winds currently for most locations are right around 10
MPH. Eastern area winds are more variable, closest to the
low...western areas are seeing winds switch to the NW.

Today through the upcoming weekend...

As this latest disturbance continues to gradually push east
today, can`t totally rule out some isolated activity lingering
around ENE portions of the forecast area this
morning...currently carrying some low end chances through mid-
morning (20 percent), a few models hinting that it could be
closer to midday before things totally clear far NErn portions.
Outside of that...did make downward adjustments to chances
across the entire area...thinking is that for most spots, most
of the day will end up drier. Models showing a brief lull in
lift between the departing system this morning and when that
next one (mentioned above currently in the Nrn Rockies) moves
in. Do have 20 percent chances returning late this afternoon in
far NWrn areas, some models suggest even that is too generous.
Mid-late afternoon, may have activity developing in a couple of
areas off to our west...one along a lower-level reinforcing cool
front draped across the Sandhills, the other across the High
Plains and higher elevations of CO/WY closer to the mid-upper
level trough axis as well as better lower-level upslope flow.
Main question into the evening/overnight hours once again is how
organized of a complex things evolve into and how far east does
it get/impact on our forecast area. Not surprisingly, models
still vary on that...but most point toward things making a solid
push into at least the WNWrn half of the forecast area before
potentially diminishing. Though forcing is there with this
system moving in and sufficient instability is present...overall
deeper layer shear is on the lower side, and the timing makes
for lower impact from daytime heating. Can`t rule out some
strong-severe storms, and the entire forecast area remains in
the SPC Marginal Risk area. Damaging wind gusts and very heavy
rainfall rates remain the primary threats, though some large
hail isn`t out of the question if storms can grow tall enough
and maintain that strength long enough.

Outside of the precipitation chances, high temps today are
forecast to be cooler than Thursday...with forecast highs in
the mid 80s to low 90s for most. For northern-eastern areas,
some uncertainty exists, confidence in those lower level clouds
and how long they stick around isn`t high...and could result in
a few spots peaking more in the low 80s (though some guidance
has upper 70s being possible). Winds today are expected to
become more northerly, then NNErly through the day...and can`t
rule out some gusts near 20 MPH during the afternoon hours.

Though it may end up being a close call for southern areas...do
have precipitation chances ending by 12Z Saturday. As for the
the weekend as a whole, without a strong upper level ridge
dominating the area don`t want to make a promise it`s
precipitation-free...but current models are in fairly good
agreement showing upper level flow more northwesterly in the
wake of the system moving through today, and an overall lack of
notable disturbances moving through...giving confidence it`ll
end up dry. If the current forecast holds, Saturday looks to
have the potential to be a pretty nice day by mid-July
standards. Currently have cloud cover diminishing through the
day from north to south...with lighter winds as surface high
pressure passes across the region. Forecast dewpoints are in the
50s-near 60, with highs for most in the low 80s. Winds turn
back to the south for Sunday, and a warmer airmass building back
into the region looks to bring highs in the upper 80s to low
90s.

Monday and on...

As we get into the new work week, periodic thunderstorm chances
return to the forecast. Models showing the upper level pattern
transitioning back to more zonal flow...increasing the potential
for shortwave disturbances to impact the region. This is the
time of year where it can be pretty difficult to have much
confidence in finer forecast details 24hrs out, let alone 3-4+
days...so for most periods, chances are around 20 percent.
Currently, the best chances (closer to 40 percent) are focused
in the Tuesday evening-night and Wednesday evening-night
periods. High temperatures Mon-Tue remain fairly steady in the
80s-90s...with the potential for highs in the 70s for Wed-Thur.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Low level stratus impacting both terminal areas right off the
bat for this TAF period, both at times with IFR/LIFR ceilings.
While this is expected to be an early-mid morning issue,
confidence in the exact timing of when VFR conditions return is
not high. Once VFR conditions do return, have them continuing
through the remainder of this period...though uncertainty in
that arises once again late tonight, with some models showing
another round of lower ceilings. The majority of this TAF period
is free of precip mention...another chance comes after midnight
tonight as the next upper level wave swings through. Models vary
with the timing and just how far east activity pushes into the
area...so kept mention in a PROB30 group for now. Generally
northerly winds expected through period...still looking at the
potential of gusts near 20-25 MPH this afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP