Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
327 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Been a cool, dreary day across the area today, with light to at
times moderate snow continuing to affect portions of the CWA this
afternoon. Upper air and satellite data showing the main upper
level  low pressure system which brought the initial
preciptiation to the area last night now set up over southern MO,
while the ongoing north- south orientated band of mainly snow is
being driven by an upper- level trough axis working its way
through from west-east. The highest snowfall reports we received
this morning of 3-6 inches were mainly concentrated in portions of
Dawson/Phelps/Gosper/Kearney counties. Through the daytime hours
today, notable accumulation has hard to come by, as temps rose
into the mid 30s and any snow that did manage to accumulate under
one of the many much smaller bands that have come and gone through
the day has melted off most roadways. At the surface, the CWA
currently sits between the main low over the MO/AR border and high
pressure building in from the northern High Plains, keeping winds
NNWrly. Speeds have been gusty at times, esp this morning, but
even now are at times gusting to around 25 MPH.

For the rest of this afternoon/tonight, this upper level trough
axis will continue to gradually slide east across the region,
taking the precipitation chances along. Hi-res models really taper
things off after 06Z, and have the CWA precip-free after 12Z
Tuesday. Significant additional snowfall accumulations are not
expected the rest of this afternoon, and overall wind speeds have
tapered off a bit, so will be letting the winter wx adv go with
this forecast package. As sfc high pressure builds south into
western NE/KS tonight, the winds will continue to taper off to
closer to 10 MPH. Confidence in overnight lows tonight isn`t high,
as they`ll be dependent on how cloud cover evolves overnight.
Current forecast lows are in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Into Tuesday, decided to remove the small PoPs from the first part
of the morning, with most models agreeing activity has moved east
of the CWA (though it may be close). Eastern portions of the CWA
look like they`ll hang onto cloud cover longer into the day,
currently have the west being mostly sunny by midday. Winds remain
northwesterly, topping out around 10-15 MPH. Didn`t make
significant changes to forecast highs, which are in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The forecast for the Tuesday night through Thursday evening period
continues to be a dry one. Models are in good agreement showing
upper level northwesterly flow building in already tonight in the
wake of today`s disturbances, remaining that way all the way into
Thursday as the ridge axis moves through the Rockies/High Plains.
Winds are expected to turn more SSErly through the period, with
both days having speeds around 10-15 MPH. There is some
uncertainty with the placement of a sfc frontal boundary, mainly
Thur, which could bring a more easterly component to the winds for
portions of the CWA. Have a warming trend in temps, with highs
Wed in the 50s/low 60s and Thurs in the 60s/low 70s.

Models show the potential for a more unsettled weather pattern as
we head into the end of the work week and upcoming weekend, but
overall confidence is not high. The GFS brings precipitation into
the area quicker and affects more of the CWA compared to the ECMWF
Fri/Fri night. PoPs are mainly in the 20-40% range, and did
expand the slight chance mention of thunder Fri evening/night.
Have more of a RA/SN combo for late Sat night/Sun. Currently have
the daytime hours Sat dry. Have the mild highs continuing into
Fri/Sat, but confidence isn`t high due to the model differences
with precip. Currently have 60s/70s for Fri, 50s/60s for
Sat...before cooling back into the lower/mid 50s for Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

A narrow area of snow extending through the heart of the CWA looks
to affect both terminal areas this afternoon, resulting in
visibilities dropping down to near 1 mi at times. The better
chances for snow are expected to diminish/slide east out of the
area later today/this evening. Though precip ends, IFR/MVFR
ceilings are expected to continue through this TAF period. Gusty
northerly winds will remain this afternoon, tapering off closer to
10 MPH this evening/overnight, with a switch to the northwest.




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