863
FXUS63 KGID 030938
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
438 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and storm chances increase (up to 90 to 100%) this
  evening and overnight. Some of these storms may be severe with
  damaging winds, hail up to the size of half dollars, and
  localized flooding.

- Another good chance of rain and thunderstorms (up to near 90%)
  Monday into Monday night with severe storms possible.

- High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Lows will be in
  the 30s and 40s through the weekend, then in the 40s and 50s
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today and tonight...

Aloft (at 500 mb), a broad upper trough extends across the
northern Plains and further west dives further south across the
western CONUS. At the surface, a developing trough extends
across the northern Plains toward the Rockies with a surface low
over southeastern Utah, with a surface high over the central
Plains. Today, the surface high will move to the east while the
surface low strengthens and moves east toward eastern CO by this
evening and into the Hastings forecast area by midnight,
dragging a cold front behind it. Meanwhile, the deeper upper
trough will move east over the central Plains this evening and
tonight with a pronounced shortwave moving over the forecast
area this evening. High temperatures today will be in the 70s. The
latest CAM guidance shows showers and thunderstorms developing
over western NE this afternoon, then developing into a line of
storms moving east across the area this evening and overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the area from
around 7PM to 5-6 AM CDT, with the best chance for severe
weather between around 8PM and 2AM. The main threats with this
system will be large hail to around the size of half dollars
(~1.25" diameter) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph
(this will likely be the main concern). While an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out, we are expecting many of the storms
to be elevated and with low level moisture struggling to get
this far north, the chance for tornadoes remains low.

Even after the thunderstorms move through, expect showers into
the morning hours Saturday with gusts of 25-35 mph out of the
north behind the front. Lows Saturday morning will range from
the mid 30s north and west to the mid- to upper 40s south and
east.

This weekend...

Showers and thunderstorms will move off to the east-southeast
Saturday morning. Surface high pressure will move over the
region Saturday while an upper ridge moves over the area late
Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will be dry after the lingering
showers/storms move out early morning with highs in the 60s and
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Sunday will remain dry as well
for many areas, but an upper level trough across the southern
Plains may impact the region enough to bring a few
showers/storms to the area Sunday evening and into Monday
morning.

Monday...

This will be the next chance for severe thunderstorms, assuming
showers and storms earlier in the morning do not make the
environment unfavorable for this. That being said, a deep upper
level trough will extend from western Canada into the central
and southern Plains, while a surface front moves across the
Plains Monday and Monday night. With high temperatures in the
70s, there is a high chance (around 80%) of showers and
thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon and evening. Latest
model guidance indicates that there will be enough instability
and shear to support severe thunderstorms during this time, with
storms anticipated to move out of the area overnight Monday
night.

Next Tuesday through next Thursday...

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with periodic low
chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through the
period, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Relatively light S to SE winds are expected through at least
the early morning hours with surface high pressure sitting over
the area. As the high moves east, S winds will increase
throughout the morning, with speeds of around 10-12 kts after
sunrise. As a cold front approaches this afternoon and evening,
winds will become gusty as the pressure gradient tightens, with
gusts of around 25 kts expected this afternoon. Rain and
thunderstorms are expected to move across the area this evening
and overnight, with RA and TSRA mentioned at both TAF sites.
There will be a switch in wind direction from SE to N as the
front moves through this evening, likely around 04/03Z but would
advise that this could be a couple of hours on either side of
that, depending on how accurate the latest model guidance is.
Expect gusts of at least 30-35 kts for a brief period as the
front moves through. Showers and/or thunderstorms will be
possible beyond the end of this TAF period, potentially out
until 09Z-12Z Saturday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford