Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 230047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
747 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Showers/thunderstorms earlier this afternoon have dissipated this
evening. Should be a quiet night with mostly VFR conditions, with
patchy fog possible for our usual sites (CXO/LBX) by sunrise. Not
too many changes from previous as the onshore flow persists and a
slightly deeper moisture from the Gulf persists across the region.
Daytime heating along with the seabreeze should help produce more
scattered storms tomorrow afternoon. Will keep with the VCSH/VCTS
wording for now. 41


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

Afternoon showers and storms today, but today mainly limited to
the seabreeze and near an outflow boundary from yesterday`s action
at the northern edge of our area. Some patchy fog in rural areas
should crop up again tonight, with another day of isolated to
scattered convection tomorrow near the seabreeze. Expect a warming
trend into the weekend, which - depending on how things play out
with the area of disturbed weather moving from the Caribbean into
the Gulf - could continue straight on into early next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Showers and storms again today - but are more subdued than the
past two days. Most activity is happening near the seabreeze, and
what looks to be an outflow boundary from yesterday`s storms at
the far northern edge of our area of responsibility. Cores have
been getting to 1-2 inches per hour of instantaneous rain rate,
and though they aren`t moving quickly, they`re dragging just
enough to keep totals from getting excessive. The heaviest rain
today has been in a very rural corner of Matagorda County.
Fortunately, the portions of Harris and Montgomery counties that
got slammed the last two days, have largely been getting a break
today. Though some urban spots show very small flares in the MRMS
unit streamflow product, the area looks pretty well behaved today.

Look for the scattered activity to begin winding down with the
loss of heating as the sun sets, coming fully to an end later in
the evening. With plenty of moisture in place, look for tonight to
be another warm one.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Scattered convection and warm temps can be expected the next two
days as well, and again the seabreeze should be most active. For
now, think that southwest of Houston may be a bit favored
Wednesday afternoon, and as an upper low drifts a little bit
eastward, will shift up towards Galveston Bay Thursday. However,
that`s fairly tentative given the relatively small and slow
motions we`re talking about here.

LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The extended forecast will be very strongly influenced by the
interplay of the aforementioned upper low as well as the area of
disturbed weather being tracked by NHC and given a medium chance
for development. As the upper low drifts eastward into the
weekend, heights should rise a bit, and with it highs into the
lower to mid 90s. From there...there is spread in the guidance as
to the upper low`s path. It could drift back our way, and allow
for higher rain chances. This may also allow the surface feature
to make its way further west, though at this time, even the left
edge of the guidance envelope keeps any direct impact east of
Texas. However, if it doesn`t retrograde quite as much, heights
may stay higher, and with subsidence on the edge of
the...whatever...that comes out, we could get quite hot next week.
Since the trend in the guidance has been to tighten some more on
the north central Gulf coast, the forecast leans a little more in
that direction. If this does indeed occur, we could see our first
triple digit heat indices of the year sometime next week.


College Station (CLL)      69  90  69  90  71 /  10  10  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              72  90  71  90  73 /  10  20  10  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  84  77  85  77 /  10  20  10  20  20



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