Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS64 KHGX 182342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

Southerly winds should decrease some tonight so fog may not be
much of an issue but there could be some lower ceilings. It will
be possible to have some MVFR ceilings a several terminals but
likely stay around 2000ft. Low level jet of 25-30 knots should
keep some mixing in the boundary layer. Ceilings should quickly
improve 14-16Z tomorrow as winds begin to mix down again. Winds
should be stronger with gusts above 20 knots at times. Sea breeze
may develop so could get winds to turn more SE to E along the
coast up towards KIAH.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 342 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018/...

Ridging over the Gulf kept winds more southwesterly this morning
but are turning more south and southeasterly at this time. A few
cumulus dot the area mainly inland. Temperatures this afternoon
90-93 inland and around 85 at the coast. Heat index readings
coming in in the mid to upper 90s.  A s/w moving through the Big
Bend region producing storms well to the west and northwest. The
only impact from this s/w will probably be some blowoff cirrus
that traverses the northern areas this evening as it dissipates.
Some patchy fog possible tonight where winds may fully decouple
probably near Navasota/Bay City/Conroe/Cleveland swath.
PW across the area isn`t impressive with ridging in place but this
will be changing over the weekend as the upper ridging starts to
weaken and sag away to the southwest. Rain chances look low
typically 20 or less of a more diurnal pattern near the coast in
the morning...shifting a little further inland with the seabreeze
which seems more likely to develop than so far today with the
south to southeasterly winds. Model soundings Sunday are nearly
uncapped with PW having risen back closer to 1.3-1.5" range from
Saturday`s drier 1.0-1.3". Even deeper moisture streaming up
through Deep South TX and the Hill Country west of the CWA Sunday.
Monday forecast gets a little more difficult as LL circulation
over FL/GA/AL meanders a westward and/or northwestward and how far
west. This helps to introduce greater moisture wrapped up around
the circulation and with a s/w moving in into SETX (filling as it
does so) from the southwest rain chances could peak Monday and
Tuesday. Weak steering winds and wind profile looks like popcorn
storms outflow driven limit any heavy rain threat. Temperatures
should continue in the 90-94 degree range no real
relief there unfortunately but with moisture increasing will
probably see higher heat index readings. Upper ridging should
start to strengthen and intrude back into the area from the
southwest with 500 heights climbing back above 588 by Wednesday
night which in turn should lead to lower rain chances and
temperatures creeping back up.


Generally moderate S/SW winds will prevail the rest of this after-
noon...with winds shifting a bit more to the SE tomorrow/tomorrow
night. So far today...winds over the coastal waters have not been
as strong and will likely hold off on the mention of the SCEC for
this evening at this time. However, models remain consistent with
the tightening gradient this weekend, so we should see Caution/Ad-
visory Flags by tomorrow. Winds/seas are progged weaken by Mon as
surface high pressure builds over the region. 41



College Station (CLL)  72  93  73  90  70 /   0   0  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)          74  93  74  90  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)        78  86  79  85  78 /  10  10  10  20  10







AVIATION...Overpeck is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.