Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251404
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1004 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM and AVIATION Sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Well above temperatures and humid conditions are expected through
the Memorial Day weekend and next week. Thunderstorm chances will
return to central Indiana this weekend. Better chances will arrive
by the middle of next week as a tropical low lifts northeast to the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 1003 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Yet another fantastic morning ongoing this morning as the Ohio
Valley continues to reside under the influence of high pressure.
14Z temperatures were already into the mid and upper 70s in many
locations.

Dry air present across the region will slowly give way through the
course of the day as low level flow fully veers around to S/SW by
late day. This will enable progressively deeper moisture to
gradually advect into the forecast area by this evening as an
upper level wave approaches. Most hi-res guidance develops
convection to our west over the Mississippi Valley later this
afternoon where the airmass will be more unstable. Remnants of
this convection is likely to make it into the region near or just
after sunset. Have therefore pulled pops back in our western
counties until after 00Z with a greater focus later in the evening
into the overnight as the wave drifts across the region.

Expect warmer temperatures from Thursday as 850mb temps continue
to rise. Highs in the mid and upper 80s are supported by low level
thermals and the current forecast has this handled well.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday night/...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

The heat and humidity and threat for thunderstorms will be the main
focus for the short term.

Models in good agreement that moisture will be increasing ahead of a
Gulf low, and an upper level trough will move across the area on
Saturday. The combination of lift, deepening moisture and weak
instability support chance PoPs Friday night and Saturday with the
best chance overnight near and west of the Interstate 69 corridor
Thanks IWX and Saturday near and east of Interstate 69. Confidence
is high that storms will develop and on the general timing. After
that, could see some lingering storms Saturday night and Sunday and
mainly southeast. However, with the trough departing and lack of a
notable lifting mechanism, confidence is low.

With low level southwesterly flow set to continue, should well above
normal temperatures with highs in the middle and upper 80s Saturday
and upper 80s and lower 90s Sunday. The combination of those
temperatures and upper 60s dew points will allow the heat index to
reach the middle 90s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday Night/...

Issued at 351 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

The extended period will start out with dry conditions on Monday.
However, focus will quickly turn to a low pressure system over the
Gulf, which will start affecting central Indiana by Tuesday.
Latest blended initialization seems reasonable, so did not deviate
from latest trends. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
periodically affect the forecast area in association with the
aforementioned low pressure system through Wednesday. Additional
shower and thunderstorm chances will then be possible late in the
extended period as disturbances approach from the north, too.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be well above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 251500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1004 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018

No changes needed for mid morning update. 12Z discussion follows.

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 00z Saturday.
Could see some MVFR conditions in thunderstorms, mainly after 03z as
moisture and instability increases, from the south, well north of a
tropical low. Confidence is not enough to go with anything other
than prob30 groups.

Winds will be calm or light southwest.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/Ryan



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