Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 160451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 340 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

High pressure ridge currently across the area will move off to the
east. Low pressure over eastern Colorado will track east across
the central plains and middle Mississippi valley Friday and the
Ohio valley Saturday. Northern areas will see a wintry mix while
southern sections receive rain.

High pressure will temporarily build across our region Saturday night
and Sunday.  This will be followed by another low pressure system
which will move across the Ohio valley late Monday and Tuesday.

Models indicate a deepening upper trough across our region by the
middle of next week which will keep temperatures cooler than normal.


.NEAR TERM /Tonight and Friday/...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Forecast in good shape so far. No updates planned at this time.
Previous discussion follows.

High pressure was over the Gulf coast states with another area of
high pressure northwest of Lake Superior.  A ridge of higher
pressure extended in between.  Satellite and weather depiction
indicated mostly clear skies across central and southern Indiana
and with some high thin clouds over the middle Mississippi valley.

Model sounding indicate mostly clear skies tonight with some increase
in mid/high clouds over southwest sections late tonight.  There
should be good radiational cooling all but the far SW tonight and
stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the lower 20s northeast
to lower 30s Southwest.

Low pressure moving into the Central plains will bring increasing
clouds across Indiana Friday. Could see low chances of light rain
southwest Sunday...although models have trended slower in moving
precipitation east Friday. Highs Friday will be in the 40s and
went a little warmer than the previous forecast with more sun.


.SHORT TERM /Friday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Main focus will be a wintry mix which move east across northern
portions of our forecast area Friday night and early Saturday as
low pressure over the middle Mississippi valley moves east.
Most models are still pretty bullish on precipitation especially
late Friday night.  They have also trended holding a little more
precipitation into Saturday.

There will be enough cold air still across our north for a wintry
mix Friday night and early Saturday.  Freezing rain will be the main
threat...although it may start out as snow some areas before
temperatures become warmer aloft.  At present time expect ice
accumulations of 0.1 to 0.2 inch across our north and northeast.
Much of this would be on trees and elevated surfaces.   With the
roads being so warm...icing on roads may be that great.   Will
continue a special weather statement for our north and northeast
zones to highlight this threat.  However would not be surprised if a
winter weather advisory is eventually needed for part of our area.

Models have trended a bit warmer and most of the icing would be
northeast of a Covington to Indy to Rushville line.  Farther south
precipitation will be all rain with precipitation gradually ending

Saturday night and Sunday will be mostly clear and dry as another
area of high pressure builds into our area.  Stayed close to a MOS
blend on temperatures most periods.  Did cut highs a little north
and central on Saturday.  Also coolest temperatures Friday night may
occur before midnight with temperatures rising some by morning.
Went with lows upper 20s northeast to near 40 southwest Friday night
and middle 20s to lower 30s Saturday night.  Highs will range from
40 northeast to lower 50s southwest Saturday and lower to middle 50s


.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The elusive search for spring will continue through the extended
period as much of the eastern U S remains locked in under a deep
upper trough within an amplified pattern aloft.

A dry start to the extended will transition quickly to a much more
unsettled pattern for early next week as a fast moving cutoff
upper low tracks out of the southern Plains on Monday and
eventually becomes absorbed within the expanding upper trough by
midweek as heights once again tumble across the eastern part of
the country.

Precip type will become a factor over parts of the region...
especially from Tuesday into Wednesday as much colder air aloft
once again expands across the Ohio Valley. Low level thermals are
supportive of rain initially Monday...with snow mixing in on the
northern flank late Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday
night into Wednesday. There is still a lot to iron out at this
early stage and it will likely be the weekend at the earliest
before more precision can be placed into the precip type forecast.
That being said...the main message here is that winter is not done
just yet for central Indiana. Potential is there for a light...
slushy snow accumulation in spots but overall impacts are likely
to be more of a nuisance than anything else. Such is wintry
weather in late March.

After a mild day Monday in the 50s...expect temperatures topping
out only in the 30s and 40s Tuesday through Thursday as the
influence of the broad upper trough is felt.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 160600Z TAFS/...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

No significant cloud cover and unrestricted visibility expected at
the terminals through early afternoon Friday. Could see some
precipitation move in near the end of the period that should be rain
for most of the sites but could be freezing rain or sleet mix at

Surface winds 010-040 degrees at 7-11 kts overnight will gradually
veer around to 080-100 degrees at 10-13 kts by early afternoon




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