Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 260447
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1247 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Very warm temperatures are expected for Memorial day weekend and
into next week. There will be some chances for thunderstorms off
and on but widespread coverage or washouts are not expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Early This Morning/...

Issued at 1228 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

Have raised pops slightly across northern counties as remnant
showers continue to hold together and move east.

Have also raised pops in western counties a bit as scattered
storms in central Illinois hold together and matches projections
of HRRR.

Otherwise remainder of forecast unchanged.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...

Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Chances for storms will continue through the day on Saturday. High
resolution output trends indicate there could be dry weather
building in by the afternoon, but not confident in this solution
so will keep at least a slight chance going through the day.

Saturday night and Sunday morning models are trending dry and went
with this. Sunday afternoon though still looking at some
variability in instability in the models. Still think some
isolated popups could occur over central and southeast parts of
the area so included a slight chance in those locations.

High confidence high temperatures Sunday and Monday will climb
into the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Ridging aloft at the end of the holiday weekend will hold serve
through midweek across much of the area...gradually getting
undercut by the remnants of newly named Alberto lifting out of the
Gulf of Mexico.

Model guidance differs on how far north the Alberto remnants will
make it Wednesday into Thursday before being kicked out to the
east. Remain somewhat skeptical that the remnants make it all the
way into the Ohio Valley...but think the potential is there for
the Alberto leftovers to get close enough to produce better
convective coverage over the forecast area with the influx of
tropical moisture interacting with an unstable airmass. Highest
rain chances come Wednesday and Wednesday night before the system
departs to the east on Thursday as a rapidly weakening upper wave.
Not everyone is likely to see rain with this system...but the
potential for some locations to get under soaking showers and
storms will grow during this timeframe.

Highs Tuesday will again make a run at 90 before the arrival of
more clouds and rain pull temperatures back into the mid 80s for
Wednesday and Thursday. With the ridging most likely to
reestablish late next week into next weekend once the Alberto
remnants shift away from the region...highs back near if not
slightly above 90 return as early as Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 26/0600Z TAF Issuance/...

Issued at 1244 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR conditions still expected to be the primary mode of operation
during this TAF cycle. Much of the earlier convection eastern
portions of Illinois continued to dissipate...with only the
potential for a light shower at LAF now. Keeping an eye on the
convection over central Illinois, northeast of Saint Louis.
Short-range models do bring this into the area along with
additional shower and storm development. Currently banking that
this will not occur and will focus on late-morning and early-
afternoon convection. Current model projections depict the best
chances for rain during this timeframe will affect the IND/BMG
terminals. However, still low confidence in IND/BMG seeing
rain...thus, have decided to continue with VCTS from approximately
1600 to 2300Z to account for the possibility. If any site is
impacted...a drop in visibilities and lower ceilings into MVFR or
potentially even IFR is possible.

Winds look to veer from south or south-southwest to west tomorrow
during the day at up to 10 kts.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...MRD


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