Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
135 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Late season arctic high pressure will build slowly east today and
tonight. This sets up a cool return flow with southeast winds
developing with somewhat less vertical mixing than Wednesday. The
temperature forecast today uses the guidance blend plus bias
correction for highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. WPC has analyzed
a warm front across wrn Neb which will move about 50 miles east
today. The temperature forecast is on the warm side of the model
envelop for this reason and nearly full sun is expected today.

The return flow strengthens tonight with an increase in midlevel
cloudiness. The SREF and GFS suggest light rain by morning across
wrn Neb while the NAM and ECM are slower. A blended approach
produces a slight rain chance after 09z tonight which might be too
fast. Bufkit suggests sprinkles but the forecast will go with a
slight chance of rain. The guidance blend plus bias correction
indicates lows in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Active weather returns for the end of the week and into the first
part of the weekend. An upper level low will move off the central
Rockies and drift eastward across the central Plains. This upper low
will result in precipitation across much of western and north
central Nebraska on Friday and lasting until Saturday morning. For
the most part, this system will just bring rain to the forecast
area. However, a few locations across southwest Nebraska could see
some light snow early Saturday morning. Accumulations will be under
a half inch and will easily melt after sunrise Saturday as
precipitation changes back to all rain. Temperatures on Friday and
Saturday will remain cooler than the previous couple days. Friday
highs only rise into the upper 40s and low 50s with highs on
Saturday rising into the 50s.

Dry weather returns on Saturday night and continuing through Monday
morning as weak upper level ridging occurs. Milder temperatures
return with Sunday highs in the low to mid 60s. Monday highs are
expected to rise into the low to mid 60s for the entire forecast
area. The next system to bring precipitation chances to the region
will arrive on Monday night. Rain chances will stick around through
Tuesday evening. Plenty of warm air across the region will keep
precipitation as all rain. The exception will be across the Pine
Ridge region where a brief change over to snow is possible before
precipitation moves east of the area. Dry weather returns on


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions with only scattered high cirrus clouds are expected
through the rest of today. Some increase in mid level clouds will
occur tonight, but still expect VFR conditions to prevail. The
next storm system arrives Friday, with rain and MVFR conditions
spreading east. Low level drier air off to the east should keep
most of the MVFR ceilings generally west of hwy 83, including the
KLBF and KVTN terminals. This could change after 18Z Friday
afternoon as the low levels begin to moisten up.




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