246
FXUS63 KLBF 101735
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A threat for a few strong or severe thunderstorms are
  possible this afternoon into the evening. Potentially Friday
  as well as a cold front pushes through the area.

- Comfortable temperatures Saturday behind the cold front.
  Warmer Sunday into Monday with a few thunderstorms possible
  early next week.

- Cooler again by the middle of next week, with temperatures
  expected to be much below average by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The upper level ridging begins to flatten today across the desert
southwest. A stronger wave will emerge from the Rockies into the
area this afternoon and tonight within the mid/upper flow on the
northern periphery of the ridging. A cold front will be associated
with this wave, and will be the focus for at least scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening. There
will be quite a bit in the way of cloud coverage today across much
of western and north central Nebraska. Mid-level clouds and even a
few showers/thunder will be possible through early afternoon within
mid-level WAA regime ahead of the approaching wave. This could
potentially have some impact on instability - but clouds appear to
thin and clear some by mid to late afternoon allowing for
increasingly unstable conditions. The cold front should be entering
eastern Wyoming into northern Colorado by mid to late afternoon.
Storms will first focus along this boundary across the higher
terrain to the west of the area. Storms should increase in coverage
as they move into western, and especially southwestern Nebraska
through the southern Sandhills by late afternoon. Damaging winds
appear to be the main threat, with a secondary concern being
large hail. This is a rather low confidence forecast due to 1)
potential cloud cover lingering longer than expected and 2)
several different scenarios from various CAMs. Some of those
scenarios develop strong convection much farther east and sooner
(by mid-afternoon) across portions of southwest Nebraska then
weaken the convection moving in from the west. Will continue to
monitor through the day.

A stronger cold front surges southeast through the area Friday.
Appears the front surges southeast during the afternoon, so
thunderstorms will again be possible. Severe is somewhat uncertain,
but a few isolated severe storms could certainly occur. Will have to
monitor just how fast the front moves through and the potential
instability that develops along and ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

It will be cooler, with a drier airmass briefly moving into the area
Saturday behind Friday`s cold front. Most areas should be right
around the 80F mark on Saturday. Upper level ridging then begins to
nose northeastward across the desert southwest Sunday into Monday
with a return to highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. A few
thunderstorms will be possible early next week with any weak
pertubations that are embedded within the flow in the mid/upper flow
on the northern periphery of the upper ridging.

A strong Canadian cold front then surges into the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. By Wednesday highs are expected to be much below
normal...in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through Friday afternoon across western and north central
Nebraska. Inside of scattered thunderstorms this evening, brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic wind can be expected. Any
storms will then exit the area into early Friday morning.

A cold front continues to slowly move across the area this
afternoon and evening, with a wind shift from south to north
with its passage. Northerly gusts behind the front of 20 to
25kts can be expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown