Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231126 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

The bank of midlevel clouds across cntl Neb gets lifted north-
northeast toward a Pacific cold front today. RAP model soundings
suggest another day of afternoon clouds as mixing processes meet
this moist layer. The temperature forecast still leans toward a
warmer solution with highs in the 60s to around 70. H850mb
temperatures warm to around 12C late this afternoon which is an
increase of 5C since Sunday.

Patches of morning fog are underway in the Platte valleys which
would burn off by 9 am CDT.

The Pacific front enters wrn Neb late this afternoon and moves
slowly east tonight. A model blend was the basis for likely POPs and
SPC suggested isolated thunderstorm coverage, generally along and
west of highway 61 where a brief period of elevated CAPE is shown by
the RAP and NAM models. Temperatures in the NAM and ECM appear to be
cold enough for snow across Sheridan County but not in the GFS
model. The RAP model will be in range of this forecast problem later
today and later forecasts could introduce wet snow in the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave moving across Idaho
early this morning. This will eventually morph into a closed
circulation later today and then move southeast across the region
Tuesday into Tuesday night. A round of mid level warm air advection
showers will be ongoing Tuesday morning from north to south across
the heart of the forecast area. As the upper level low drops south,
this precipitation will remain nearly stationary and try to wrap
back west some Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The heaviest
QPF should remain from north central into central Nebraska
immediately northeast of the upper low track. Up to 1/2 inch of
rainfall is possible across these areas by early Wednesday morning.
Some snow may mix in, but feel the NAM is overdoing the intensity of
the precipitation and dynamic cooling, and therefore is producing
too much snow. Across western and southwest Nebraska, less
precipitation is expected, with up to 1/4 of an inch possible in
places.

Cool conditions are then expected Wednesday and Thursday. Another
disturbance and cold front will drop SSE across the area Thursday.
Little precipitation is expected, but gusty northwest winds will
develop behind the cold front.

Finally some warmer weather is anticipated for the weekend as upper
level ridging builds across the central ahead of developing western
CONUS long wave trough. Appears that 70s are now likely for highs
both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR is expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska today and this
evening. MVFR/local IFR is expected from 06z tonight onward west
of highway 83 and north of Interstate 80.

A Pacific cold front moving through the Wrn U.S. will move through
Nebraska late tonight. Rain and isolated thunderstorms are
expected with the frontal passage.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC



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