Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 152322 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

A very active pattern was noted across Canada and the
CONUS this morning. H5 flow remains highly amplified across the bulk
of the CONUS today. Closed low pressure was located over central
Iowa with a trough of low pressure extending south into the central
Gulf of Mexico. Further west, a low amplitude ridge was present from
northern Arizona into eastern Montana. Further west, WV imagery
is showing an area of low pressure around 500 miles off the coast
of Washington state. At the surface, low pressure was present over
eastern Ohio with a cold front extending south into central
Florida. Across western and north central Nebraska, an inverted
area of high pressure extended from north central into south
central Nebraska. West of this inverted ridge, winds have shifted
to the west in the panhandle and readings had surged into the
lower 50s. East of this feature, winds were northerly and temps
were in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Surface high pressure will remain over the central US through
Monday. This will result in dry and fair conditions across much of
western and north central Nebraska. For tonight, mostly clear skies
will all for sufficient radiational cooling resulting in overnight
temperatures in the teens.

On Monday, mostly clear skies will continue. Locations southwest of
a line from Gordon to Broken Bow will see high temperatures in the
mid 40s to low 50s. The Imperial area (Chase county) could even see
a high in the upper 50s. Locations northeast of the Gordon to Broken
Bow line will only see highs on Monday in the upper 30s. Persistent
snowpack and recent cloud cover from the day before, will keep
temperatures across this region cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Mid range...Monday night through Wednesday...Precipitation chances
and types of precipitation will be the main forecast challenge in
the mid range forecast. Ridging aloft will transition across the
forecast area Monday night, becoming oriented from the Ozarks
north into Minnesota Tuesday. An upper level trough of low
pressure will cross the central and northern Rockies Tuesday. This
will lead to the development of a surface trough of low pressure
across the front ranges of southeastern Wyoming and eastern
Colorado Monday night into Tuesday morning. Southerly winds will
increase Monday night into Tuesday east of the surface trough of
low pressure. Modest low level warm air advection will push into
the southern forecast area from the south on Tuesday. This area of
warmer air will quickly be met by a cold front which enters the
northwestern forecast area late Tuesday afternoon. South of the
front, highs will reach the 50s in northern Nebraska to the lower
to middle 60s south of Interstate 80. As for highs in the north
central forecast area, the superblend this morning initialized
with highs in the middle 40s across portions of north central
Nebraska for Tuesday. Felt this was due to the influence of
expected snowcover. With superblend forecast highs of lower to
middle 40s Monday in the northeast forecast area, feel the
influence on highs from estimated snow cover in the model is too
great at this time. That being said, modified highs up slightly in
the northeastern forecast area to the upper 40s to around 50. The
front will track through the forecast area Tuesday evening. Along
and ahead of the cold front some modest instability will develop
from southwestern into southeastern portions of the forecast area
Tuesday evening. Further north, better lift will commence in the
form of decent mid level warm air advection. This will favor an
increased threat for pcpn Tuesday night across northern and
northeastern portions of the forecast area. Pops will remain the
highest across northern Nebraska Tuesday night. This favors the
ECMWF, GFS and SREF solns which tracks the main area of mid level
energy across northern Nebraska. The NAM12 soln this morning is
the outlier tracking the main area of energy across southern
Nebraska, and was not utilized with this fcst package. As for snow
accumulations, will keep these confined to northern portions of
the forecast area and in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Dry conditions will set in midweek
as a ridge builds into the central CONUS. This will be followed by
closed H5 low and deepening trough of low pressure Thursday night
into Saturday. This system has all the makings of a decent
precipitation producer with thunderstorms possible Thursday night,
followed by a decent amount of deformation precipitation Friday into
Saturday. This system resembles the system we just experienced this
past weekend, however, cold air is not as prevalent with this system
and it lacks an arctic tap of cold air. This will make the ptype
forecast tricky as only a few degrees difference will lead to either
heavy snow or a cold rain. ATTM, tried to limit the threat of snow
to the central and northern CWA, as well as keep accumulating snows
to the overnight and early morning hours. This system will bear
close watching over the next several days, as it could produce
widespread accumulating snows across western and north central
Nebraska, especially Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

VFR is expected all areas overnight and Monday.

An approaching storm system near the Pacific Northwest coast will
send high clouds toward western and north central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC



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