Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 112022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
322 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

The short term period will be generally quiet with light winds.  A
broad area of surface high pressure will build south overnight as
heights rise to the west.  With mostly clear skies in place and
light winds, a good radiational setup is expected.  Forecast
overnight lows are a result of the blended guidance, which indicates
generally teens for most locations.  Rising height in advance of the
next week wave set to arrive late tomorrow will promote another dry
day.  SFC winds are forecast to be easterly or northeast through
much of the day, which will recycle cooler air back across the
forecast area.  Not expecting much improvement in temperatures with
highs generally in the 40s and lower 50s for the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Sfc high pressure across snow-covered Alberta and Saskatchewan will
build through the Missouri basin Monday night and Tuesday. This high
pressure will be located across the South Wednesday and will hold
cool air in place through Tuesday. A warming trend develops
Wednesday and peaks Thursday. The model consensus continues to show
temperatures at the h850mb level rising from near 0C Tuesday to
around 15C Thursday.

The latest wrinkle in the models is that mild Pacific air may
continue Friday through Sunday. The model consensus would suggest
h850mb temperatures around 10C during this time but this a blend of
solutions ranging from the ECM at -5C to the GFS at 12C. The warm
air is the result of an upper low remaining across the West Coast
and even the cooler ECM shows this. The 500mb heights in the ECM
would not seem to support the strength of back door cold front shown
by the model. This would most likely impact the temperature forecast
Friday. Confidence in the temperature forecast Friday and beyond is
marginal. The rain forecast more so. The ECM indicates snow on
Friday with a high of 30F. March weather can be unpredictable.

Regardless, weak disturbances preceding the upper low could present
some sort of low-end rain chance, generally across northern
Nebraska. The upper low may move through the cntl Plains late Sunday
which would be the best rain chance. The model consensus would also
suggest the best rainfall will fall north, mostly across SD and the
GFS places Nebraska in the warm sector supporting K indices in the
lower 30s with thunderstorm potential. Rain chances are in place for
Sunday. The predictability of thunderstorms 7 days out is too low to
mention in the forecast.

The temperature forecast uses a blend of model data plus bias
corrected guidance. A gradual warming trend is in place Tuesday
through Thursday with highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s Thursday.
The latest model blend suggest highs in the 50s and 60s Friday and
Saturday cooling into the 40s and 50s Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

A dirty ridge of high pressure will slowly build southeast through
today. The stratus is following suit, with gradual lifting from
west to east. The clearing line has made it to KLBF and KVTN, thus
ceilings are rapidly improving. Winds have been breezy today and
generally from the northwest. The models show the continued
clearing trend with lesser winds going forward. Thus VFR is
anticipated for most terminals beyond 00z tonight with light




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