Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 162320
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
620 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tonight into Thursday
morning, but chances appear low as there is really no defined low
level boundary or upper level support to help focus convection.
Southerly low level jet will increase tonight and help transport
richer Gulf moisture northward into the area, and this will help set
the stage for heavy thunderstorm activity late Thursday afternoon
and Thursday night.

Surface low pressure will deepen during the day Thursday leeward of
the Rockies. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the
central plains with southerly winds increasing. Will be a warm day
Thursday with H850mb temperatures of 20 to 22C supporting highs in
the mid 80s. As mentioned, moisture will be on the increase with
surface dew points right around 60F most locations by later Thursday
afternoon. Conditions will be quite unstable by late afternoon, with
MLCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/KG across most of western NE and
around 1500 J/KG across central NE. Should see scattered
thunderstorms develop late in the afternoon as ascent associated
with a shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Storms should
first develop across the higher terrain of the western high plains.
Adequate shear and instability will allow for quick storm
organization with the potential for supercells.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Thunderstorms should quickly organize into an MCS across far
western NE and the Panhandle Thursday evening. Moist southerly LLJ
should support the MCS moving east across most all of western and
north central NE during the evening and overnight hours Thursday
night. Locally heavy rain is possible, with a few storms capable
of large hail and damaging winds as well. Although a tornado
cannot be ruled out, the main threats would be hail and wind with
any severe storm.

The main upper trough approaches from the west on Friday.
Expecting another round of heavy/severe convection late Friday
afternoon and Friday night. All indications are that the
atmosphere will recover quickly Friday afternoon as southeast low
level flow advects rich gulf moisture into the area with SFC dew
points in the 60s. A nearly stationary front will extend northeast
from a SFC low that will be located across northeast CO. This
will likely be the focus for the initial thunderstorm development
late Friday afternoon. Although a few severe storms will be
possible late Friday afternoon and Friday night, there is growing
concern for a potential heavy rain event Friday night. The
aforementioned stationary front will sag south into southwest NE
Friday evening, with a warm/moist southerly low level jet
intersecting the front, likely leading to continued redevelopment
of thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across portions of
western/central and southwest NE.

The upper trough will lift northeast across the area Saturday,
with continued showery weather. The surface front will be located
southeast of the area by Saturday, with north winds and chilly
highs in the 50s behind the front. Some moderation Sunday, but
continued clouds and cool air in place will hold highs in the
lower 60s.

Another deep trough will develop into the western CONUS next week.
Southerly low level flow will quickly return Gulf air back into
the area, with at least scattered showers and thunderstorms and
highs back into the mid and upper 70s with increased humidity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

For the KLBF terminal: Expect some scattered high cloudiness over
the next 24 hours with the main threat for clouds resulting from
decaying thunderstorms in the Nebraska Panhandle. Winds will
become gusty from the southeast on Thursday afternoon, gusting as
high as 25 to 30 KTS. For the KVTN terminal: Thunderstorms will be
possible in the vicinity of the terminal through mid evening.
Given the isolated coverage, will handle mention of thunderstorms
with a VCTS through 02z Thursday. After mid evening, expect
scattered high clouds across northern Nebraska through 00z Friday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Buttler



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