Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KEAX 222003

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
303 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 303 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

Quiet conditions are expected this evening through the overnight
hours, before an active pattern begins for much of the remainder
of the forecast period. A few light showers or heavy drizzle will
be possible as early as sunrise tomorrow morning as the atmosphere
saturates, then will become increasingly possible especially in
eastern portions of the forecast area by Friday afternoon in an
area of broad warm-air advection. A few thunderstorms may develop
in central KS near the dryline/pacific front and push east north-
east into the forecast area. These storms may give western areas
of the CWA their best chance for showers and storms; otherwise,
much of the precip with this round may miss the southwestern
quadrant of the forecast area. Limited elevated instability on the
order of a few hundred J/kg is possible as far north as the IA
border as the surface low approaches, resulting a small potential
for some storms to produce small hail.

The surface low will pass through the forecast area overnight
Friday night, with most precipitation focusing along and north of
Highway 36. PWATs are about 200% of normal and rain could be
rather efficient in northern portions of the CWA, producing up to
an inch of total rainfall. The associated cold front will then sweep
through the region around sunrise Saturday morning, pushing any
lingering showers and thunderstorms out for the rest of Saturday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Saturday in the wake of the
cold front, but will recover quickly on Sunday and Monday as
southerly flow returns.

Several chances for showers and isolated storms are possible
Sunday through Tuesday as several waves move up through zonal to
southwesterly flow aloft. The main focus will be Tuesday as
several rounds of rainfall become possible along a slow-moving
frontal boundary, and a deep plume of moisture flows into the
central Plains. Several inches of rainfall are possible through
these rounds of showers/storms, but the position of the heaviest
rainfall is still in question.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2018

VFR conditions should persist through the day; if any diurnal cu
develops it should be very limited in coverage and will be based
above 3 kft. Winds will remain out of the southeast at 12-15 kts
through the afternoon, then will back slightly toward the east
and diminish a bit this evening. A deck of stratus will develop
around 5-6 kft after midnight, then will progressively lower as
the atmosphere saturates toward sunrise. A few very light showers
or drizzle is possible Saturday morning, but will focus mainly
east of the terminals.




Aviation...Laflin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.