Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260422
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1122 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

While this rainfall is nice, and much needed, these temperatures
are not as great compared to the last two days. Temperatures did
make it into the 50s and 60s early this morning, but since the
rain moved in, temperatures have dropped a few degrees. So far,
those in far western MO and far eastern KS have received up to
three tenths of an inch of rain with another two tenths possible
before everything is said and done. The rain will continue moving
southeast, really only impacting those south and west of
Kirksville. The rain should exit the KC Metro around sunset and
the rest of our area by midnight tonight.

Thursday should be a pretty nice spring day as a shortwave ridge and
surface high pressure move through the area. Some clouds will move
in in the afternoon, but temperatures should still get into the
upper 60s. Thursday night, a weak boundary and a quick moving
shortwave trough, currently over MT, will move southeast across
the Midwest. All models depict pretty dry air at the surface as
this system moves through, so with that and the weak boundary, we
don`t anticipate rain chances anymore.

The well-advertised upper level ridging and surface high are still
on track to bring us gorgeous weather for Friday through early next
week. Temperatures will start off in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday
and should warm into the upper 70s, approaching 80, by Monday.

On Monday, we should transition to the warm sector of a developing
low. This will be in conjunction with a deep upper level low moving
through the western U.S. While there is still time for things to
change, this looks to be our next chance for storms.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

The IFR and MVFR ceilings have moved south of the area leaving
only potential fog this morning as the main hazard. Currently the
skies are clearing out and winds are light, but drier air is
pushing into the region from the northwest. This push of drier air
should limit any fog formation north of Kansas City, but to the
south where the dew points will remain higher fog is a concern.
Currently IXD is going into IFR visibility conditions and may
even drop to LIFR in the next couple hours. This dry air will
eventually make its way to the south and start to clear out the
fog just before sunrise so this trend is in the IXD TAF. This fog
will be shallow and should burn off quickly at sunrise leaving VFR
conditions throughout the rest of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Barham


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