151
FXUS63 KEAX 021123
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong storms possible early this morning and again this
  afternoon with gusty winds to 50 mph the main threat.

- Additional rainfall of 1-2" with locally higher amounts will
  pose a risk for localized flash flooding as well as river
  flooding.

- Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend.

- Potential for severe storms on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Early this morning scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed over the area due to isentropic ascent on the 300-305K
surfaces. This is occurring out ahead of a broken line of severe
thunderstorms moving across central Kansas that developed overnight
ahead of a cold front. These storms are expected to weaken below
severe limits as they reach the area before sunrise this morning
however, thunderstorms with gusty winds are still expected through
the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain
across the area this late this morning into the early afternoon as a
LLJ continues to nose in the area through that timeframe. As we move
into the afternoon the cold front will push through the area. This
will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon however, severe weather potential will be limited due to
the inability for the atmosphere to recover from morning storms.
What may be of more concern is the flooding potential as PWATs will
remain in the 1.50"-1.75" over the course of today. Additional
precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts
may lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding. Cloud cover
and precipitation will keep highs in the 70s today.

Storms are expected to exit the area tonight as surface high
pressure build into the area. Surface high pressure will remain in
control over the area Friday providing dry and pleasant condition
with seasonable highs in the low to mid 70s. Friday night, a upper
level trough will move from the western High Plains into the Upper
Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area provide
ascent for another round of showers and thunderstorms late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Another surface ridge of high pressure
looks to build into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Highs behind the front Saturday are expected to reach the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

High pressure will remain in control most of Sunday however, a upper
level shortwave trough will move from the southwestern CONUS into the
Ozark by Sunday evening. Dry conditions over the area should keep
the focus of storms associated with this system south of the area
however, the extreme southern CWA may receive a few showers and
storms. Highs Sunday will again remain seasonable in the upper 60s
to mid 70s. Sunday night into Monday a strong upper level trough
will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains
taking a negative tilt as it does so. Strong deep-layer shear and
moisture will make the potential for severe weather possible
although this time the better chance for severe weather would be
west of the forecast area. However, this system will need to be
monitored. With strong WAA out ahead of this system, highs on Monday
will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Through the middle part of next week the region will be under zonal
flow aloft. Subtle shortwave in zonal flow aloft may bring the
chance for occasional scattered showers to the area. Highs will be
in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Widespread showers and storms are moving into and developing
over eastern KS and western MO this morning. These showers and
storms will linger through the morning hours before diminishing
in coverage after noon. Conditions will be variable during
precipitation with reductions in visibility to MVFR likely and
drops in ceilings to low MVFR or even IFR. Low MVFR ceilings
will linger through the afternoon hours before becoming VFR late
this evening through the remainder of the forecast. Winds will
be mainly from the south to southwest through mid morning and
then begin to veer to the west and northwest through the
afternoon. Winds become northerly this evening and overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB