000
FXUS63 KEAX 252342
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
642 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to
  continue from now through Sunday. Some areas may see up to 2
  inches of rainfall through Friday morning. High winds possible
  behind the rain this evening. Gusts to 50-60 mph possible.

- A severe potential exists Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. All hazards
  are possible including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes
  and flooding.

- Multiple rounds of heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and
  river flooding with most of the focus on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Showers due to isentropic ascent and low level forcing are expected
linger through the evening. There is a MCV moving through western
Missouri bringing showers and thunderstorms that will linger around
for the next few hours. High winds approaching 50-60 mph are
possible behind the rain as the system moves through the area.

A shortwave trough is expected to enter the Great Plains region
Thursday evening into overnight Friday. As winds begin to shift more
to the south ahead of the system, return-flow from the Gulf will
increase. As the low level jet intensifies, this will increase
moisture and warm air advection setting the stage for additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These showers are not expected
to be severe however, there a strong winds with gusty winds and
small hail is possible. Multiple rounds of showers are expected
through the morning into the afternoon. The best chance for strong
to severe weather comes Friday afternoon into the evening.

SPC has our area outlooked in a slight to enhanced risk. The
enhanced risk is encompassing the northwest side of a line from
Trenton to northern parts of the KC Metro while the majority of the
state of Missouri is in a slight risk. With steady return-flow from
the Gulf increasing instability, our dew point temperatures will be
able to reach the mid 60s in addition to CAPE values ranging from
1,500-2,000 J/kg. As the trough continues to move closer to the area
it will become more negatively-tilted showing signs of
intensification. Storms will develop in a decently sheared
environment, with over 40 knots of effective bulk shear, enhancing
storm organization and creating the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes. Flooding is also a concern with PWATs
ranging from 1-1.4 inches and training storms through the weekend.
Limiting factors for Friday storms will be the track of the low.
Latest CAMs suggest the low pushing further north than previous
model runs. The timing of the trough will be important as it may
move too fast initiating convection earlier and out of sync with the
greatest instability. Additionally, Friday`s convective activity may
be slightly hindered due to the previous rounds of showers through
early Friday morning.

Saturday seems to be a better chance for severe weather with the
passage of the next system. This system becomes more negatively-
tilted as a branch of the jet rounds the base of the trough putting
the region in the exit region of the upper level jet creating more
upper level divergence and lift. Ahead of this trough there will be
significant return-flow from the Gulf allowing the increase for
moisture and instability. Compared to Friday`s setup, Saturday will
be more favorable for severe weather because of the absence of
showers before the severe potential allowing day time heating to
charge the environment. CAPE values will be allowed to build up to
3,000-3,500 J/kg with low-level lapse rates ranging from 8-10
degrees C/km which will further enhance the lower thermodynamic
profile for severe storms. Bulk shear values ranging from 45-50
knots indicate an amply sheared environment which will help with the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and a possible tornado.
Saturday`s potential for severe looks to be during the afternoon
into the late evening. With PWATs ranging from the 1.25-1.4 flash
flooding and river flooding will be a concern especially with the
repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

As the trough continues to moves to the northeast, there may be
another potential for severe weather Sunday afternoon into the late
evening. The threat seems to be to the east of the KC Metro.
Instability and shear will be less than Saturday, but still good
enough to initiate and organize thunderstorms. Whether or not the
environment will be able to recover from the previous day`s storms
will be a huge determining factor. As colder, drier air pushes
through the area behind the frontal boundary, this may help to
counteract the instability which may stifle thunderstorm development
for western Missouri.

The extended outlook continues to remain active. Upper level flow
orients more zonal; however, embedded shortwaves traversing the
CONUS continue to bring shower and thunderstorm chances. Low level
flow oscillates between southerly and easterly which overall
maintains the inflow of warmer air and moisture keeping temperatures
above normal and allowing the chances of convection to persist.
Exact details of the magnitude of prospective storms remains
uncertain as the extended outlook will be greatly affected by what
occurs in the short term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Deepening area of low pressure will lead to strong southeast
winds becoming more southerly through the period. Widespread
MVFR ceilings will transition to IFR overnight, with the
potential of isolated convection through the evening becoming
more widespread towards 06 along the I 29 corridor lifting
northeast with time. Increasing winds are expected after 15Z,
with potential gusts to 30-35 knots. Looks to be a struggle to
shake the IFR-MVFR stratus through much of the day tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT