Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151955
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
255 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2018

It is a cold one today (which is an understatement for this time
of year), with a high at MCI so far of only 30 degrees F. The
record lowest maximum temperature for MCI is 41 degrees F in 1993.
Right now it doesn`t look like we will get warmer than 34 degrees
F, and reaching that might be a stretch, so we are definitely on
track to smash the record. The same goes for St. Joseph, whose
record is 43 degrees F in 1917 and forecast high for today is also
34 degree F. Another "fun" fact for this unpleasant weather is it
looks like we won`t even reach the lowest normal high temperature
for KC (the lowest normal high temp for KC is 38 degree F in
January).

We are still seeing some flurries across the forecast area, as the
upper level low and associated vorticity maximums remain overhead,
slowly moving east. Flurry chances will continue to diminish as the
day progresses. Very little accumulation, if any, is expected.
Tomorrow, upper level ridging and surface high pressure move in,
bringing us warmer temperatures and clear skies. It is going to
stay windy though for the first part of the day, as we will remain
under the tight pressure gradient of the exiting surface low and
approaching surface high.

The warming trend will continue Tuesday, as we transition into
the warm sector of a lee side trough developing over the Rockies.
Wednesday, the lee side trough and an upper level shortwave trough
are projected to move through IA, bringing two main concerns. The
first is there may be elevated fire weather danger, especially
for those south of HWY 36. It will be windy and the relative
humidity should drop into at least the low 30s, so caution is
going to need to be taken if burning. The second concern for
Wednesday another round of rain, mainly along the MO/IA border.
The NAM wants to bring rain chances a little further south, with
the Canadian keeping precipitation in IA, and the GFS/ECMWF
splitting the difference. The ingredients certainly come together
better across IA, but can`t rule out rain chances for our far
northern counties, so have slight chance for rain for now. After
the system passes, temperatures will cool a little for the last
half of the week, but we`ll still see 50s and 60s. The next
chance for widespread rain is going to be next weekend, as a an
upper level trough and surface low slowly make their way across
the center of the country.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2018

An upper level low pressure system is slowly moving east producing
some light flurries, especially across central and north-central
MO, but this shouldn`t impact visibility. MVFR ceilings are also
being observed thanks to this system. Ceilings should lift to
low-end VFR this evening around sunset. Right now the low-end VFR
ceilings should stick around through 06Z, but it is possible
they hang out for most of the night before clearing out. Winds
will remain out of the northwest for this forecast period. They
will also remain gusty. They will weaken some after sunset, but
the pressure gradient will still be tight enough across the
forecast area for gusty conditions.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana



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