Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 142332
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

Main upper-low currently centered over northeastern Kansas will
continue to push eastward and take on a negative tilt as a ridging
pattern builds over the western CONUS. A surface low over
northwestern Missouri will advect eastward underneath the upper-low
through the the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. The
relatively stacked nature of the system has permitted continued
moisture advection on the back side of the departing surface low
across central and eastern Kansas. Rapid drying in the mid-levels as
evident on the 12Z KTOP sounding has confined existing moisture
fields beneath 850 to 900 hPa, locally. As a result, for the
remainder of the afternoon hours, expect to see lingering low
level stratus, along with light drizzle as the afternoon
progresses. It`s not until the evening and overnight that moisture
fields will deepen once again as the deformation zone advects
over the area. This, combined with a cooling thermal profile, will
promote the development of light rain in the early evening to a
transition to a wintry mix and snow overnight across much of the
area. This may include a brief period of freezing drizzle late
this evening as temps cool prior to the arrival of deepening
moisture availability. Snow accumulations are possible on grassy
surfaces, though overall impacts should remain minor. Of more
notable concern is the likelihood for a hard freeze tonight for
areas which have seen a number of growing degree days. Have
maintained the Freeze Warning for areas south of the Missouri
River beginning tonight through Sunday morning. Cold temps
tonight, combined with increased low level flow will bring wind
chill values to the mid teens across the area early Sunday
morning. Will likely need to consider an additional Freeze Warning
Sunday night for the counties affected tonight, in addition to
counties further east, still south of the Missouri River. In all,
low temps tonight will dip to the mid to upper 20s for most areas,
with colder values Sunday night dipping into the low to mid 20s
for all areas as cloud cover clears the area. Of lesser impact but
still noteworthy is that high temps on Sunday will only peak in
the mid 30s to low 40s, approximately 20 degrees below normal.

The more seasonal temp trend will slowly return Monday as the
upstream ridging pattern begins to build overhead. By Tuesday
afternoon, temps will rebound to the low 70s for areas south of
the Missouri River. A subsequent cold frontal passage Tuesday
night will keep the warming trend in check, however. At that time
a mid-level trough will push through the Northern and Central
Plains. While most forcing for precipitation will be just to the
north of the local area, northern Missouri may see rain showers
with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly north of Highway
36. Better chances for more widespread precipitation will hold
off until the late week into the early weekend as a subsequent
dynamic storm system moves through the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

Cold front is moving through KC Metro currently. Winds will shift
to the northwest and begin to increase and gust. Winds may gust to
around 25 to 30 kts. This wind shift will also usher in colder air
and that will allow for light rain to transition to light snow
this evening. This doesn`t look to be a major impact for ground
surfaces given recent warmth and low rates. But elevated and
grassy surfaces could see minor accumulations of around half an
inch. This showery precipitation should persist through most of
the night before moving to the east of the terminals. Ceilings
should be MVFR for the entire forecast while the upper low slowly
migrates to the east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ028-029-037-
     038-043-044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB



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