Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141724

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Issued at 308 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2018

Main concern in the short-range forecast will be wildfire danger
this afternoon, which is described in detail throughout the Fire
Weather discussion below. A Red Flag warning has been issued for
portions of eastern KS and far western Missouri, and agencies with
fire weather interests should monitor for possible updates to the
areal extent of the warning.

Ridging over the central CONUS will spell warm temperatures today
and Thursday, as well as quiet weather conditions. Low-level
moisture will slowly return to the region Thursday ahead of a
developing lee-side surface low. Winds may actually remain a bit
lighter on Thursday as a weak warm front/inverted trough develops
over the forecast area, which will combine with increasing low-
level moisture to possibly lessen fire weather concerns a bit for
Thursday afternoon. Precipitation will become possible as the
aforementioned surface low ejects eastward out of the Rockies and
through the central Plains; however, much of the forecast area
will be in the warm sector as the warm front lifts northward, and
precipitation coverage may be scattered at best across the KC area
and points southwestward. Higher QPF and coverage are expected in
northern MO where the warm front will linger and provide more
focus for showers to develop, especially from HWY 36 northward.

Very light wrap-around precipitation is possible across northern
MO as the system departs Saturday, and briefly cooler temperatures
are expected in its wake CWA-wide. However, the parent upper-
trough will only deliver a glancing blow to the area, and high
temperatures will quickly recover to near 60 by Sunday. The next
system has slowed a bit over the last several days, but confidence
is starting to increase in its location and timing. Current track
for the 850 hPa low is directly through the CWA, and especially
this time of year, that track should mean mainly rain for our CWA
through the majority of the event. Rain showers and perhaps a few
isolated thunderstorms will become possible Sunday evening through
Sunday night ahead of the approaching system, then lingering wrap-
around precipitation will be possible Monday through Monday night.
Precipitation type could be snow especially across the northern
tier of the CWA, but the coldest air at 850 hPa doesn`t really
surge southward down the backside of the trough until the system
is nearly out of the CWA. Will continue to monitor the potential
for wintry precipitation, but just an overall pattern analysis
indicates impacts from wintry precipitation should be low for the
majority of the CWA. Afterward, quieter conditions and briefly
cooler temperatures will follow behind for the very end of the
forecast period.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT WED MAR 14 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. However, gusty
southwesterly winds this afternoon will impact aviation interests,
as well as the possibility of low-level wind shear overnight into
early tomorrow morning. Given how marginal it currently looks,
have negated mention in this issuance but may need to be included
for the next one. Look for winds to become more southerly, along
with upper-level clouds starting to stream in overhead by the end
of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Issued at 308 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2018

Very high to extreme fire danger is expected this afternoon across
eastern KS and portions of northwestern and far western MO. Winds
will be the only limiting factor but sustained speeds are still
expected to reach 15 to 20 mph, and have occasional gusts to 25
mph. Relative humidity will reach 15 to 20 percent this afternoon,
and even that forecast is a moderation of what some of the high-
res models indicate. Native fuels remain dry and nearly fully
cured, with 10-hr fuel moisture of 6-8% and and ERC values between
60-80%. GFDI values top out around 30 (very high) and RFTI values
are near critical in nearly all of the forecast area, but are
coincident with the lowest ERC values across northwest MO, far
western MO, and eastern KS. A Red Flag warning may be warranted
further to the north than currently indicated, so will need to
continue to monitor the potential for a short- fused warning in
northwest MO if winds look any stronger than currently progged.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-



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