Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KEAX 150457
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1157 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

Main upper-low currently centered over northeastern Kansas will
continue to push eastward and take on a negative tilt as a ridging
pattern builds over the western CONUS. A surface low over
northwestern Missouri will advect eastward underneath the upper-low
through the the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. The
relatively stacked nature of the system has permitted continued
moisture advection on the back side of the departing surface low
across central and eastern Kansas. Rapid drying in the mid-levels as
evident on the 12Z KTOP sounding has confined existing moisture
fields beneath 850 to 900 hPa, locally. As a result, for the
remainder of the afternoon hours, expect to see lingering low
level stratus, along with light drizzle as the afternoon
progresses. It`s not until the evening and overnight that moisture
fields will deepen once again as the deformation zone advects
over the area. This, combined with a cooling thermal profile, will
promote the development of light rain in the early evening to a
transition to a wintry mix and snow overnight across much of the
area. This may include a brief period of freezing drizzle late
this evening as temps cool prior to the arrival of deepening
moisture availability. Snow accumulations are possible on grassy
surfaces, though overall impacts should remain minor. Of more
notable concern is the likelihood for a hard freeze tonight for
areas which have seen a number of growing degree days. Have
maintained the Freeze Warning for areas south of the Missouri
River beginning tonight through Sunday morning. Cold temps
tonight, combined with increased low level flow will bring wind
chill values to the mid teens across the area early Sunday
morning. Will likely need to consider an additional Freeze Warning
Sunday night for the counties affected tonight, in addition to
counties further east, still south of the Missouri River. In all,
low temps tonight will dip to the mid to upper 20s for most areas,
with colder values Sunday night dipping into the low to mid 20s
for all areas as cloud cover clears the area. Of lesser impact but
still noteworthy is that high temps on Sunday will only peak in
the mid 30s to low 40s, approximately 20 degrees below normal.

The more seasonal temp trend will slowly return Monday as the
upstream ridging pattern begins to build overhead. By Tuesday
afternoon, temps will rebound to the low 70s for areas south of
the Missouri River. A subsequent cold frontal passage Tuesday
night will keep the warming trend in check, however. At that time
a mid-level trough will push through the Northern and Central
Plains. While most forcing for precipitation will be just to the
north of the local area, northern Missouri may see rain showers
with isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night, mainly north of Highway
36. Better chances for more widespread precipitation will hold
off until the late week into the early weekend as a subsequent
dynamic storm system moves through the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

Radar shows more light precipitation developing over northwestern
MO and northeastern KS and spreading to the south. Precipitation
type is questionable with this round as there is a larger area of
little or no cloud ice. This may result in a freezing drizzle/snow
mix as the precipitation moves into the terminals. This round of
precipitation should last several hours into the forecast.
Ceilings will generally be low MVFR with pockets of IFR.
Visibility may drop to around 3 miles in heavier precipitation.
Winds will continue to be from the northwest with gusts around 25
kts. The low clouds will start to move out of the area late in the
afternoon and by we should see VFR conditions around 00Z Monday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ057-060-103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ028-029-037-038-043-
     044-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...CDB



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.