Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211918
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
218 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Mostly dry conditions were occuring across the area this afternoon
with some filtered sunshine across the eastern half of the area.
This has allowed temps to reach the middle to upper 60s across the
area and mix down some dry air that was evident on our 12Z
sounding. The combination of low relative humidity and wind gusts
around 25 mph has created elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon along and east of US Highway 65. This dry air has also
eaten away at the rainfall as it has tried to progress east out of
Kansas and Oklahoma. The upper level low was still over western
Kansas and as it moves east this afternoon and evening, rain
chances will gradually increase.

Expectations are for a shield of light to moderate rain to move in
from the southwest this evening and last through the overnight
hours. High res models indicate the precip becoming more
scattered and showery by late evening before becoming more
widespread after midnight as a low level jet develops and noses
into the area from Arkansas. Temperatures tonight will only fall
into the 50s.

As the surface low slides across Arkansas Sunday, a shield of
light to moderate rainfall will exist across most of the area and
last possibly into the evening hours. Winds will begin to turn to
the northeast and with clouds/precip, temps will not move much
through the 50s.

Total rainfall amounts from Tonight through Sunday night have been
slightly increased with amounts ranging from 0.5 inch across
Central Missouri to 1.00 in from Joplin/Springfield/Salem to near
1.5 inches from Branson/Ava/West Plains/Alton. Therefore
locations across far southern and southcentral missouri will see
the most rainfall from this system. However it will come over a
12-24 hour period given the light to moderate rainfall rates.
Instability will remain very low with almost all lightning
remaining in Oklahoma and Arkansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The upper level low will be slow to move through therefore precip
will linger Sunday night through the first half of Monday. There
are some indications that showers may even last into Monday
evening across the eastern ozarks. High temps Monday will be
around 60.

A northwest flow pattern will develop next week with one system
arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday with light rain chances.
Another system will arrive from the northwest Thursday night with
additional rain chances. High temps this week will remain at or
slightly below normal. No hazardous or impactful weather is
expected this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR ceilings will be common for the first 6 hours of the TAF
period. Ceilings will then lower in the evening hours as a shield
of light rain moves into the area. JLN will be impacted first
then SGF and BBG later in the evening. Initially MVFR ceilings
will be common with the first few hours of rainfall then ceilings
will drop to IFR by Sunday morning. Rain will last through the
Overnight and likely all of Sunday. Winds will gradually switch
from the east southeast to northeast by Sunday morning. Can not
rule out some 3SM-5SM vis with the rainfall Overnight into Sunday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield



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