Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 191950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

The surface and mid level low is currently moving across southern
Missouri and will be east of the area by this evening. A few
breaks in the clouds over southwest Missouri had lead to some weak
instability and a few showers developing. Expect scattered showers
to continue into the evening hours.

Otherwise, Weak mid level troughing and cyclonic flow in its wake
will be favorable for some light rain/drizzle over the area,
especially later this evening through the overnight hours. Will
also likely see some patchy fog as well, but with winds keeping
things stirred will not see visibilities drop to far. This will
likely continue into Tuesday morning before tapering off and
moving east later Tuesday afternoon. Cannot rule out some snow
mixing in for a time late tonight into early Tuesday morning as
lows are expected into the lower to middle 30s in those sections.
The pressure gradient remains tight behind the low so breezy
northwest winds are expected at least through the early afternoon
hours on Tuesday, with a raw day expected as highs only top off in
the middle 40s to the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

For Tuesday night, the mid level low translates into the Mid-
Atlantic state, while ridging builds in from the west. The local
area will remain in northwest flow with surface ridging traversing
the area. Rather chilly temperatures expected Tuesday night with
clear skies and light winds, will likely result in temperatures at
or below freezing for much the area. As the ridge builds in for
Wednesday and Thursday the surface high gets pushes eastward
allowing for a return of southerly winds and warming temperatures,
back into the 60s by Thursday afternoon. As the ridge axis remains
west of the area, medium range models do indicate some weal subtle
shortwaves drop down through the area Thursday and Thursday night.

Friday through Monday looks to be somewhat more active as mid level
ridge breaks down allowing for several shortwave troughs to lift
out of the southwest into the Plains. Initially moisture looks to
be rather meager on Friday and Saturday, but as we head into the
late weekend and early next week there is a better chance for some
deeper gulf moisture to advect northward. None the less will see
periodic rain chance, but much to early to discern any details at
this point. Overall though temperatures will on the mild side.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Low pressure over southwest Missouri will continue to move
eastward through the period. The TAF sites are currently near the
center of the low so ceilings have been quite variable from IFR to
VFR. As the low pushes eastward later tonight expect all sites go
go back down into IFR or lower MVFR flight conditions as wrap
around moisture returns to the area. Showers will be scattered
this afternoon, with more light rain/drizzle likely developing
overnight. There is a lull in the winds due to the close proximity
of the low, but as it pulls eastward the gradient will tightening
and expect breezy northwest winds overnight into Tuesday morning.
Flight conditions will begin to improve after 15Z Tuesday.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.