Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 170429

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon into Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Interesting surface weather pattern at 19z included a stationary
front that extended from a low near Salinas, KS through Fort
Scott to a bit north of West Plains...a dry line that extended
more or less southward from the low and a cold front lagging
behind into the Texas Panhandle.

This pattern has lead to two rather diverse short term concerns
into this evening...rapid spread of grass fires over the west and
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over parts of
central and south central Missouri.

There is a Red Flag Warning in effect for southeast Kansas into
far western Missouri until 7 PM. 20 to 30 mph winds with gust to
40 mph will be noted in this area...with south winds shifting
westerly as first the dry line and eventually the cold front
moves through the region. Humidities will fall into the 20-30%
range with the passage of the dry line.

At the other end of the meteorological spectrum...there is a
conditional risk for isolated strong to severe storms along the
surface boundary during the late afternoon due to the existence
of good low level wind shear and a northwest to southeast ribbon
of ML CAPES of 750-1000 J/KG...however the 19z special upper air
observation from KSGF yielded the existence of a cap which has
minimized updrafts to this point. This narrow area of CAPE will
translate eastward with isolated to scattered convection to
develop from Truman Lake southward into the Stockton Lake region
through 21z and then spread eastward along and north of the
surface boundary into the early evening. Best chance for any
severe storms will be from 3:30 to 7 PM.

For those desiring rainfall...precipitation will be limited to less
than 0.25 inch in the areas that witness rainfall.

Saturday will then be dry but 10 to 15 degrees cooler on the back
side of the cold front which will reach the AR/LA border before
stalling out.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The frontal boundary will return northward on Sunday setting up a
bit of deja vu as warm advection over the front leads to pockets
of light rain Sunday night. Limited instability will once again
lead to uncertainty on thunderstorm development and strength on
Monday as another negatively tilted upper low crosses the Central
Plains. Rain chances..and maybe even a bit of snow over Central
Missouri...will then continue into Tuesday as several weak
short wave descend off the western ridge.

Otherwise look for seasonably cool temperatures in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

A dry Pacific airmass was spreading across the region tonight,
forcing earlier thunderstorms into the Mississippi River Valley.

Therefore, look for a few passing mid and upper level clouds, with
no obstructions to visibilities. Winds will be shift to the
northwest by late Saturday afternoon.

Our next chances for widespread precipitation will be Sunday into
Sunday night.

Safe Travels.


Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Complex surface weather pattern to lead to potentially dangerous spread
and shifting of grass fires over southeast Kansas into western Missouri
into this evening. Winds will vary greatly due to the presence of
the surface boundaries mentioned above.

Of greatest concern will be over southeast Kansas into far western Missouri
where winds will gust to near 40 mph and dew points fall on the back
side of the dry line resulting in relative humidities dropping to around
25 percent before temperatures begin to fall this evening.




SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
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