931
FXUS63 KSGF 242340
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
640 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily heat index values in the middle 90s to lower 100s will
  occur across the area each day this week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening shower and storm
  chances (15-30%) will be possible each day through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a summertime high pressure cell
located the Ohio River Valley with the Ozarks region on the
western periphery. 12z KSGF sounding measured a moist low level
airmass with a PW value around 1.5in. The mid levels continue to
moisten with a mid level RH around 55%. Mid level temps were
slightly cooler today (9C) and a cumulus field had developed
across the area. Convective temps around 89F have been met in
several areas with a few isolated showers along and south of
I-44. Dewpoints were slightly higher than yesterday (lower 70s)
with heat index values generally in the 93 to 98 degree range.

This Afternoon through Wednesday: A few pulse like showers and
storms will remain possible (10-25% chance) along and south of
I-44. Upper level moisture remains a limiting factor for
stronger pulse storms therefore lightning and locally heavy
rainfall are the potential hazards. Mid level temps look
similar on Wednesday however some slightly higher mid level
moisture may allow for a few more pulse like showers and storms.
Chances (10-25 percent) again favoring areas east of
Springfield where mid level temps are coolest.

High temps this afternoon and on Tuesday will likely reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s which is slightly above average for the
time of year, especially up near Rolla/Vichy. Overnight low
temps continue to remain above average as lows are typically in
the middle 60s with lows previously and going forward remaining
in the lower 70s. This is contributing to the Heat Risk output
reaching the moderate to major category northeast of
Springfield. Therefore anyone without effective cooling systems
and those working outdoors will need to take proper precautions.
The steady south wind will keep the heat from being as
oppressive as it could be and no Heat Advisory is planned at
this time as daily max heat index values remain at or below 100
degrees in many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Thursday through Monday: Ensemble guidance continues to suggest
that the upper level high may slowly move or expand slightly
west or southwest Thursday therefore this looks to limit the
daily pulse shower and storm threat with NBM pops below 15
percent. Upper level energy does look to slide across the
northern plains this weekend and especially by Monday which
should allow for the upper high to push a little further south
into the southeast US. Pops are around 30 percent for the
weekend and have increased to 40 percent by Monday. NBM
continues to show very small high temperature ranges with alot
of consistency/confidence in the upper 80 to lower 90 degree
range. Therefore a persistence forecast continues for the end of
the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Radar and satellite imagery depict multiple weak outflow
boundaries across the area from afternoon pop-up showers. These
may briefly shift southerly winds to southeasterly, though
speeds should stay below 10 kts and VFR conditions will prevail.

Otherwise, 5-10 kt winds shift southwesterly after 14Z, with a
3500 ft cu field developing once again. Pop-up showers and
thunderstorms are then expected in the area after 18Z with the
best chances (20-30%) for SGF and BBG to see any precipitation.
Have included a PROB30 for those sites. JLN will have a 10-15%
chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm for the same
timeframe. Confidence is therefore too low to include in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 24:
KSGF: 77/1934

June 25:
KSGF: 76/1952

June 26:
KSGF: 76/1937

June 27:
KSGF: 76/1934

June 28:
KSGF: 78/1936

June 30:
KSGF: 77/2018

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Price
CLIMATE...Burchfield