Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Mid and upper ridging that has been over the area the past several
days finally breaks down today as ridge axis shifts off to the east.
Convective inhibition weakens with cooling aloft will lead to better
shower/storm chances, although main frontal boundary still remains
off to the north and west of the area. None the less, ample
instability will develop this afternoon and evening but deep layer
shear really drops of the further southeast get into the forecast
area. NAM/GFS only show 25 to 30 knots progged across the eastern
and northern counties. Thus expect the most organized convection to
be mainly north and west of a Joplin to Osage Beach line, where some
strong to severe storms will be possible with damaging winds the
main threat and large hail a secondary threat. As for timing, some
of the CAMs are showing isolated to scattered activity as early as
midday, with better chances late afternoon into the evening hours.
The outlier to this is the NAMNest, as its showing a cluster of
storms dropping southeast through the forecast late this
afternoon/early evening, with a second area blowing up over
southeast Kansas this evening and pushing east during the mid to
late evening hours. Did introduce some lower end probabilities by
midday, with mid range probabilities later in the afternoon and
evening, especially across the northern and western counties.
These will likely have to be refined as the day wears on.

It will be another warm day, with highs likely again to reach the
middle and upper 80s, and lows tonight in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Convective potential and coverage on Tuesday is somewhat uncertain
at this time. Models are showing the surface boundary to get into
the area, and will likely have residual outflow boundaries from
Monday`s convection. Although showers/storms will be around, still
uncertain on strength of any updrafts given the amount of clouds
expected and thus how much instability can develop.

Relatively weak nearly zonal flow aloft sets up on Wednesday, with
an upper level trough of low pressure moving in for Thursday and
Friday. This will keep shower/storm chances in the forecast along
with slightly cooler, albeit summer-like temperatures.

As we head into the weekend both the GFS and ECMWF are showing some
weak mid level ridging migrating across the region which may tend to
temper any precipitation chances. Overall though, temperatures will
remain more summer-like through the period with highs remaining in
the 80s and lows in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Mainly VFR flight conditions expected through the TAF period. The
only exception would be within showers and storms. However, With
regards to convection, confidence not high on overall evolution
with respect to the TAF sites, especially later this afternoon and
evening. Did include a VCTS for KSGF and KJLN for this afternoon,
but left any mention of showers or storms out beyond 00Z due to
uncertainty. Later forecast will have to re-evaluate. South winds
expected to gust to near 20 knots at times this afternoon at KSGF
and KJLN but diminish this evening.




SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.