Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 161723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1223 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018


Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Surface analysis and obs identified a dryline from Chanute, KS to
Tulsa, OK. A stationary boundary was bisecting the area from just
north of West Plains back to the northwest through Bolivar and
Nevada. These boundaries extended into a 995mb low over Northern,
Kansas. Ahead of the dryline, dewpoints were increasing into the
low to middle 50s across extreme SE KS and SW Missouri. Temps were
also increasing south of the stationary boundary with some low 70s
across far SW MO. Temps north of the boundary were in the 40s and
low 50s. GOES 16 1 minute sat showed a few breaks in the clouds
occuring across the area with some cu developing from Bourbon
county KS to the southeast into SW Mo.

As the low pressure and dryline move east this afternoon, a few
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along it and near
the stationary boundary. High res models show the best place for
initiation may be in a northwest to southeast fashion from St
Clair/Cedar/Dade Counties  into Hickory/Polk/Greene counties by
2-3pm. Forecast soundings off the RAP for SGF for 3pm show CINH
near zero with about 500-700ML CAPE. There is also some low level
cape around 100j/kg. Wind shear profiles are supportive of
organized storms with 50-60kts effective bulk shear. Mid level
lapse rates are steep (7C/Km) therefore there will be some hail
threat. Mid levels look dry so damaging wind threat will also
exist. The tornado threat is low but not zero. Storms near the
stationary front will have the best chance for this given the
shear profiles. LCL values are low and some low level cape may be
present. This will bare watching this afternoon. Storm coverage
does not look all that great, with just scattered storms in nature
developing and moving east mainly east of Highway 65 by late
afternoon and early evening. Therefore not a big window in time
for severe storms however any storms that can get organized could
pose a severe threat.

As the dryline moves closer to US Highway 65, much drier air will
move in and RH values will tank along and west of the I-49
corridor where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A compact and potent negatively titled shortwave trough is moving
out into the Central Plains region this morning. A band of
scattered light showers have develop and arching across the area
this morning. This band will continue to slowly move eastward
during the morning hours and can`t rule out an isolated rumble of
thunder through the morning.

The Missouri Ozarks area will be "sandwiched" in between two
frontal boundaries today. A stalled warm front will be near
central Missouri draped down into southeast Missouri where
temperatures south of this boundary will be much warmer than
northeast of this boundary. A sharpening dry line will develop
across central Kansas and Oklahoma. This dry line will move
eastward this afternoon. A strong low pressure will move across
the Central U.S. today. Southerly winds will be gusty today
shifting to southwest late this afternoon.

High-res models show a ribbon of limited instability arching from
southeast to northwest across the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon
with surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s. Forecast
sounding data shows up to 800 J/KG CAPE values may be possible.
There is some indications of some low level CAPE up to 150 J/KG
trying to develop ahead of the dry line. Bulk shear values are
high between 50 and 60 knots along with strong helicity values up
to 400. Given those parameters, there may be an isolated tornado
threat this afternoon between 3 pm and 7 pm ahead of the dry line.
The potential is very low but not zero given the strong dynamics.
The main risk for any isolated severe storm will be hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 55 mph. The entire system moves
out of the area by late this evening with cooler weather moving
in behind it.

Fire weather concerns will develop again this afternoon especially
for areas behind the dry line in extreme western Missouri and
eastern Kansas. Humidity values will drop to 25 percent or less
along with gusty southwest winds 20 to 35 mph. Some gusts up to 40
mph possible. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for I-49 and
westward this afternoon. This may need to be expanded if the dry
line surges further east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

Saturday will be cooler with weak high pressure building in. The
next storm system will quickly be moving in late Sunday into
Monday. There will be another negatively tilted strong shortwave
trough kicking out across the Central U.S. Showers will become
likely spreading from southwest to northeast late Sunday into
Sunday night continuing into Monday. There could be enough
elevated instability for a few rumbles of thunder but nothing
severe is expected at this time. Temperatures will turn cooler on
the back side of this system for middle of next week followed by
dry weather for a few days.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

MVFR ceilings early on in the TAF possible before scattering out
this afternoon. An isolated storm is possible at SGF by mid
afternoon however confidence is still low on the coverage so went
VCTS for now. Winds will remain gusty out of the southeast before
turning more southwesterly then westerly tonight.


Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

A sharp dryline will advance into the western areas by mi-day
with strong gusty winds and humidity values dropping. Red Flag
conditions will be likely for areas along and west of I-49 this
afternoon. Outdoor burning is strongly not recommended this
afternoon where the Red Flag Warning has been issued.


MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088-

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.