Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
506 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...12z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

An upper level trough is moving across the western U.S. this
morning and will begin to move out into the Central U.S. A
surface low pressure will develop and deepen across the High
Plains. Winds will become south-southwesterly today and gusty.
Wind gusts up to 35 mph may be possible. Surface moisture and
dewpoints will be slow to recover today. We will see elevated fire
weather danger conditions again today with a relatively dry
airmass, warm temperatures, and gusty winds. We are just shy of
Red Flag conditions but will need to monitor trends later today.
Exercise extreme caution if doing outdoor burning today. Highs
will warm up into the lower and middle 70s.

The strong upper level storm system will move out into the Plains
tonight. An arching band of showers and storms will develop ahead
of the system across the region late tonight into Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Friday will be a windy day with the surface low continuing to
deepen over Kansas into Nebraska. Models indicate a narrow ribbon
of limited instability could develop ahead of an approaching
dryline/front Friday. A marginal threat of isolated strong to
severe storms has been included in the forecast for Friday
afternoon and evening across the Ozarks region. The main threat
will be isolated severe hail up to quarter size and damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph. A sharp dryline will advance into our western
areas Friday afternoon. See the Fire Weather section below for

Saturday will be cooler on the back side of the exiting storm
system. The next system will quickly moving into the region on
Sunday into Monday. Another fairly strong upper level system and
associated low pressure. It will again be breezy Sunday through
Tuesday. Rain and a few storms will be likely Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. At this time, strong storms are not
expected. It will again turn cooler behind the exiting system on
Tuesday with showers ending and remain coolish through mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

VFR will continue today into tonight. The only aviation concerns
for pilots will be gusty south-southwest winds later this morning
and afternoon up to 25 knots. At the end of the TAF period will be
a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. There is a
PROB30 group that mentions this potential.


Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions will be
possible this afternoon with gusty winds and warmer temperatures.
It doesn`t appear Red Flag conditions will be reached today but it
is something to monitor and stay situationally aware of today. A
sharp dryline will advance into the western areas Friday afternoon
and evening with strong gusty winds and humidity values dropping.
Red Flag conditions look more likely for areas along and west of
I-49 Friday afternoon and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued.
Extreme caution is advised for outdoor burning today and outdoor
burning is strongly not recommended on Friday afternoon.


MO...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for MOZ066-077-088-093.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
FIRE WEATHER...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.