Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1237 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-50% chance for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
  along a frontal passage this afternoon and evening.

- Elevated fire danger east of Springfield Saturday. Elevated to
  significant fire danger Sunday with gusty south winds.

- High chances (80-90%) of widespread showers and a few
  thunderstorms on Sunday evening through Monday.

- Much cooler temperatures with several chances for below
  freezing low temperatures Tuesday-Thursday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continued to show that split flow pattern across
the country with northern and southern stream jets splitting the
area. A shortwave/cut off low was located across southern
Oklahoma/northern Texas and was slowly moving east. Additional
energy was located across Minnesota. There was some mid level
moisture present with clouds across the area however the low
levels, especially east of Springfield remain dry. There was a
stationary front extending southeast from low pressure across
Nebraska and Kansas. This stationary front was located near
Joplin where dewpoints were 40. Dewpoints east of Springfield
were still in the middle 20s. Temps remained above average given
the clouds and light southeast winds.

Today through Tonight: Low pressure will continue moving
east/southeast towards Missouri through the morning and will
effectively force a front through the area by early afternoon.
However given the warm start temps should climb into the 60s to
near 70 for early afternoon highs, even with some clouds. Winds
actually look to veer ahead of the front and given the lack of
quality moisture, convergence along the front looks weak. That
being said, latest HREF guidance does show mean MU CAPE around
250j/kg with a few CAMS showing isolated showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm this afternoon and evening along and just behind
the front. Chances look to remain less than 50 percent with mean
QPF less than 0.10in. Many locales will remain dry. By late
afternoon and evening we appear to see the true cold front with
gusty north winds around 30mph which will last through the
evening.

Winds turn more northeasterly late in the night as high pressure
builds into Minnesota. There is some indication in the high res
guidance that low level clouds will build in through the night
and into early Saturday morning. Given the flow over the Ozark
Plateau this seems reasonable and may need to bump up sky cover
further in future updates. This could affect overnight lows
however cold air advection will still allow for temps to drop
into the lower to middle 30s. The gusty winds will likely
preclude much of any frost formation.

Saturday: A more zonal flow pattern will set up ahead of a large
upper level trough across the western US. Winds will begin to
turn east/southeasterly and we will need to monitor dewpoints as
there is a known high bias in departing surface high regimes.
The front that moves through today looks to drive all the way
into the Gulf of Mexico which will affect moisture return back
into the area. NBM temperature data suggests that highs will
reach the middle to upper 50s however if morning clouds can
erode earlier/quicker then a few areas could hit 60, mainly
south of Springfield. The combination of low RH and winds around
15 mph will create elevated fire conditions east of
Springfield.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Sunday through Monday: A large upper level trough with several
embedded shortwaves is still on track to move through the
western and eventually the central US in this timeframe.
Ensembles continue to show less variance with this system which
is boosting confidence in the details. The main piece of energy
will become negatively tilted as it moves into Kansas late
Sunday afternoon/evening with a strong surface low developing.
This will begin pulling up gulf moisture however it will be
modified given the early weekend intrusion. Models continue to
show precip staying west of the area through the day. This
should allow for temps to reach the 60s. Of greater concern are
the winds and potential significant fire danger. The pressure
gradient will begin to increase through the day, especially west
of Springfield. Areas east of Springfield will be slowest to
moisten with the lowest RH values. Therefore the highest winds
currently do not look to overlap the lowest RH areas but in
general we are beginning to see areas east of Springfield come
close to significant fire danger and will need to monitor this
as we get closer.

By Sunday night, models are showing a 50-60kt low level jet
developing overhead. While we are not as confident in these
winds mixing down to the surface, especially given the time of
day, the overall pressure gradient will be strong. Latest NBM
has a 80-90% chance of wind gusts greater than 45mph for the
western half of the area, which is pretty high for this time
range. Precip looks to develop across Kansas and Oklahoma but
will likely remain west of the area until late in the night.

Depending on the exact speed of the system (Euro ensembles
continue to be a little slower), rain chances will linger
through Monday evening with the NBM continuing to show 80-90%
chances of rainfall during this timeframe. Severe weather
chances continue to look very low, mainly due to the lack of
instability. NBM continues to show less than a 10% chance of
surface CAPE over 500j/kg. CIPS analogs and the CSU machine
learning probs have also backed off on the threat for our area.
Confidence is greater that we will see more widespread rain than
we have seen lately with the NBM showing about a 50-70% chance
of at least a 0.50 inch of rainfall with this system for areas
along and east of Highway 65. These probs drop off into the
20-40% range west of Highway 65.

Tuesday through Thursday: Ensembles continue to suggest a
period of northwest flow aloft with cooler and drier weather.
Mean 850mb temps look to drop into the 0-2C range which will
create several opportunities for morning lows to drop at or
below freezing and those with sensitive outdoor vegetation/early
season growing will need to stay up on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Intermittent MVFR conditions have occurred at KSGF and KJLN
during the morning hours as low to mid level clouds filter
through the area from an upper level shortwave south of the
area. Surface winds have shifted out of the northwest, and are
expected to become gusty later this afternoon and evening, with
gusts up to 25 kts. There is a 20-40% chance of brief showers at
the sites this afternoon, however coverage will remain low.
Otherwise, MVFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites later
this evening and overnight before improving tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Melto


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