Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 192301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
601 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Strong to severe convection continues in the eastern CWA
primarily along and north of a surface warm front and ahead of a
subtle H5 wave currently moving through the area. Meanwhile...boundary
interactions with the surface front is setting off another round
of convection over north central Oklahoma.

As the larger upper level wave moves out of eastern Colorado
toward the Upper Mississippi Valley...low pressure will develop
and move along the front. This will induce more convection along
the front that will move up and into the area during the overnight
hours. Primary threat with these storms will be wind and
hail...but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out especially over
extreme southeast Kansas. This convection will continue into
early Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

The quasi-stationary surface front meanders back and forth across
central Missouri through most of the week. This will keep slight
chance to chance PoPs in the forecast. In the upper levels..a
trough is situated over the southwestern US with a ridge over the
Central States. As small short waves move out of the southwest
trough and up and over the ridge...rain chances over the area
will increase.

Not too much variability in day-to-day temperatures with highs
generally in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid
60s...or about 5-10 degrees above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 453 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Currently...a frontal boundary extends across the area...roughly
from JBR-JLN-PNC...with strong to severe convection occurring
along the boundary. An upper level low...located along the CO/NE
border is forecast to move into eastern SD by the end of the
forecast period. As it will induce an area of low
pressure on the surface front which will move into northeastern
MO by the end of the forecast period.

For the most part...VFR conditions can be expected except in areas
where convection is occurring...which will be MVFR. The convective
activity will affect the KJLN and KSGF terminals most but could
affect KBBG after about 07z. Convection should be out of the
terminal areas by mid to late morning with mainly mid and upper
level clouds present through the remainder of the forecast period.




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