Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 131754
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1254 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

At the surface a stationery front extends from south central Kansas
into far northern Missouri and should remain there throughout the
day today, and perhaps inching northward into southern Iowa tonight.
Ridging aloft will also continue and result in keeping the same
weather pattern over southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks that
we have seen the past several days. Convective potential looks
minimal as atmosphere remains capped and even CAMs are not showing
much activity developing along the frontal zone this morning.

Highs will be in the upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s this
afternoon, which will be near record highs. See climate section
below for records for today. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to
near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

The ridge weakens and slides southeast Monday with the mid and upper
level flow becoming southwesterly. As this occurs the area begins to
experience some cooling aloft as the day progresses. Although the
main surface boundary remains well to the west and north of the
area, weakening convective inhibition may result in convective
development aided by a weak shortwave translating out of Oklahoma.
There will be ample instability, but deep layer shear not all that
impressive but enough across the far northwestern sections of the
forecast area for better organization and the possibility of severe.

Southwest flow aloft continues into Early Wednesday before somewhat
more significant troughing develops across the mid section of the
country. This will keep the rather unsettled weather pattern intact
right into next weekend with periodic showers/storm chances. As for
temperatures, they look to remain above seasonal normals with highs
in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A frontal boundary will remain west-
northwest-north of the area with south winds continuing. Afternoon
cumulus will occur in the short term with some periods of vfr
ceilings possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Here are some record highs for today:
Springfield....88 set in 1974
Joplin.........90 set in 1995
Vichy-Rolla....90 set in 1956
West Plains....90 set in 1984

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA
CLIMATE...Raberding



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