Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
256 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)

Scattered thunderstorms developed this afternoon across west
central and central Missouri. This airmass contained up to 3000
j/kg of mixed layer cape. Deep shear was on the marginal side,
however, this cape / shear combination should be sufficient to
produce a few organized thunderstorms late this afternoon and

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for areas along and
north of a line from Columbus, Kansas to Rolla, Missouri.

This activity was forced by an upper level shortwave trough that
was centered directly over the state of Missouri today.

For tonight, scattered thunderstorms will continue as the airmass
remains unstable. The shortwave will be exiting, however, it`s
possible that outflow from storms in northeast Kansas forces
scattered coverage tonights. So will need to monitor for the risk
of a large line segment.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)

Models are suggesting the possibility of a stalled out outflow
boundary across southern Missouri tomorrow, that triggers another
round of afternoon convection. Shear remains weak, but given the
instability, we won`t rule out a rogue wind report or two.

Similar conditions are expected on Thursday, as the GFS depicts a
stalled out synoptic cold front over southern Missouri that will
once again trigger scattered convection within a weakly sheared

Building mid level heights and an increasingly capped airmass will
limit convective potential on Friday. Look for afternoon highs to
reach the 80s on a daily basis through Friday.

Saturday also looks dry, however, by Saturday night and Sunday,
a weak zone of baroclinicity slides underneath the weak southwest
flow aloft and brings additional rain chances to the Ozarks. Shear
could be a bit stronger on Sunday, bringing some organization to
the storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will be possible for
much of the taf period as they form along a sfc front that will be
west-northwest-north of the area. Outside of thunderstorms, expect
general vfr conditions. Winds will veer to the southwest and west
late in the taf period as the front moves into the area.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.