Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251733
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

We are watching a little mid level wave near the KC area this
morning with some scattered convection down the I-49 corridor.
This area is slowly drifting to the east-southeast. Short term
model guidance show this area of convection to continue through
the morning and midday hours as it drifts into Central Missouri
and eventually the eastern Ozarks region. This convection will
likely release some outflow boundaries towards the southwest later
today and this boundary will be a potential focus area for
additional isolated to scattered pop up storms to develop this
afternoon and evening. Given the instability today and slight
shear, there could be an couple stronger storms with damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size along with
localized heavy rainfall. The marginal risk from SPC looks good.

Models continue to show another complex of storms or MCS to
develop near the KC area late overnight and drift southward
towards southwestern Missouri and southeast Kansas by daybreak
Saturday. We will monitor these trends and there could be a little
bit of gusty wind threat with it late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Upper level ridging builds over the region for the weekend which
mean the rain chances go down and the heat goes up! Can`t rule out
an isolated stray shower or storm Saturday but most areas will
just see sun and hot weather. The heat really gets cranking by
Sunday and Monday with highs in the lower 90s and heat index
values near 100. Infact, we will be close or breaking some daily
record high temperatures. Try to find some water to cool off and
stay hyrdated because Summer started early this year. See the
climate section below for more details.

We will watch the eventual track of a tropical system which may
come up in the mid Gulf Coast Region by early next week. This
system may get close enough by middle of next week to give up some
added moisture and daily summer time pop-up storm chances again.
Otherwise the main story will be ended May on potentially the
warmest May on record.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Airmass has stabilized behind early morning convection...though
isolated thunderstorm potential remains later this afternoon into
the early evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Saturday May 26th Sunday May 27thMonday May 28th
Record/Year Record/Year Record/Year
Springfield     93/2012    91/2012    90/2012
Joplin    94/195392/2012 92/1983
Vichy-Rolla 98/2012 95/201292/2012
West Plains 95/201292/201294/2012

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Runnels
CLIMATE...Griffin



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