Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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612 FXUS64 KAMA 161658 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1158 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The Panhandles may be in for another round of activity today as model agreement continues to see the progression of the upper- level trough through the area. This progression will continue to see moisture filter into the Panhandles with some of the CAMs projecting PWAT values above one inch across a majority of the CWA. This will allow for showers and storms to have better chances of producing heavier rainfall for the area. However, models are not too enthused on amounts with most of them giving us around a half to three quarters of an inch at its best. As for sever potential, most models are see around 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with a couple pockets reaching near the 1500 mark. These values would be able to help get something near severe criteria, but most storms may not be able stay sustained due to lack of good shear across the area. Currently, most models are seeing bulk shear peak at about 20 to 25kts at best, so we may be in for more pulse like storms that produce more rain than hail. Unfortunately, storms and showers themselves, may find it a little difficult to form tomorrow. The main reason being the ongoing showers that are occurring this early morning. It is entirely possible that these showers and storms could overwork the atmosphere and keep the CWA more stable for the day, which would result in more cloud cover than showers. Given the potential, have chosen to slightly low the POPs for the day and stick with the low precipitation amounts Heading into Friday, weather looks to get drier as models see a ridge build in behind the trough that afternoon. Warmer conditions will likely follow with afternoon high temperature going from mid 70s today to low 80s Friday. The only thing that may need to be watched is a low chance of linger storms in the southeastern Panhandles early that morning. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 This weekend a ridge is expected to build across the southern plains bringing a period of mostly stable and fair weather to the panhandles that will last through mid next week. Two exceptions to the fair weather may occur during this period first this weekend the second early midweek. The fist exception look to occur late on Saturday as a trough in the central plains flattens the ridge and may allow some moisture into the northern panhandles. This could lead to isolated rain showers and thunderstorms if a sufficient amount arrives. If not enough moisture pushes in then it will result in just increased cloud cover. The second exception may occur this Tuesday as a trough ejects out of the desert SW into the central plains flattening the ridge again. If sufficient amount of moisture manages to makes it way into the panhandles then isolated rain showers and thunderstorms may occur. If not then it will just be another round of clouds. Winds for the weekend and to mid next week look to follow a standard diurnal trend of gusty during the daytime hours and weak during the overnight. As for temperatures the panhandles will be getting hot under the influence of the ridge. This will see the weekend highs mainly in the 90s with a small chance of the warmest areas reaching 100. It wont be until the ridge is flattened out on Tuesday that the highs finally drop. This will see the mid week highs drop to the 80s and 90s providing a little relief. SH && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Primarily VFR conditions are expected during the 18Z TAF period. However, KAMA and KDHT may see a shower or thunderstorm form this afternoon ahead of 00Z Friday. Confidence is low at this time for and have only mentioned VCTS in the TAF. The main system bringing the support for thunderstorms is looking to possibly have all the vast majority of thunder activity south of the TX Panhandles. Winds are looking to be easterly, less than 15 kts. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 80 54 91 / 50 10 0 0 Beaver OK 51 84 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 46 82 52 87 / 20 0 0 0 Borger TX 53 84 57 93 / 40 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 51 83 53 93 / 40 0 0 0 Canyon TX 51 80 53 91 / 50 10 0 0 Clarendon TX 54 78 55 90 / 60 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 45 82 49 89 / 30 0 0 0 Guymon OK 49 83 52 89 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 51 82 54 93 / 60 10 0 0 Lipscomb TX 53 82 57 91 / 30 10 0 0 Pampa TX 53 80 56 90 / 40 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 54 80 56 90 / 50 20 0 0 Wellington TX 55 80 56 91 / 50 20 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...36