Tropical Weather Discussion
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246
AXNT20 KNHC 191038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 03N20W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 28W and
32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge reaching east to west from southwest Florida to the
central coast of Texas will shift eastward ahead of a cold front
moving off the coast of Texas currently. Light to moderate E to
SE winds are noted over most of the Gulf, with 1 to 3 ft seas in
the northeast Gulf and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere. Visibility is
unrestricted across the Gulf, and no showers or thunderstorms.

Fresh to occasionally strong northerly flow will follow the front
over the northwest Gulf this morning, but remain generally within
60 nm of the north Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts and
diminish this afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida
Big Bend area to northern portion of the Mexican state of
Tamaulipas this evening. Fresh northerly winds will reinforce
the front tonight into Fri. The front will continue south over
the eastern Gulf Fri, but stall then drift north over the western
Gulf. Fresh to strong easterly winds are possible over the
northeast Gulf into Sat as high pressure builds north of the area
in the wake of the front. The front will stall and weaken off
southwest Florida late Sat into Sun, as another front emerges off
the Texas coast late Sat night/early Sun morning. This second
weak front will reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to
near Veracruz Mexico by late Sun, and from the Florida Panhandle
to the northeast Yucatan peninsula by late Mon, followed by
moderate northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough moving across Puerto Rico into Hispaniola has largely
dissipated, although an upper trough over the Windward Passage is
supporting isolated showers from central Hispaniola to south of
Puerto Rico. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E winds persist off
the coastlines of northwest Venezuela to Colombia with 8 to 10 ft
seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas, with fairly dry
conditions persist across the basin.

For the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will
allow fresh to locally strong trades along the north coast of
South America to expand northward over the south central
Caribbean into the southwest Caribbean through Fri, then
diminish somewhat late this weekend into early next week.
Northeast swell will increase east of the Leewards on tonight
and Fri, then decay from west to east through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front reaches from 31N61W to 25N71W,
bisecting the subtropical ridge along 27N. Moderate to fresh
southerly flow is noted off the northeast coast of Florida,
between the ridge and lower pressure over the southeast U.S. Seas
are generally 3 to 5 ft in open waters. No shower or
thunderstorms are noted.

Remnants of the stationary front will drift west and become
diffuse late today, as a cold front moves off the northeast
Florida coast. The front will reach from Bermuda to south
Florida by late Fri, then stall from 26N65W to the Straits of
Florida late Sat. Remnants of the front will lift north on Sun
ahead on another cold front moving east across the southeast
United States and entering the northwest waters late Tue.

Farther east, 1032 mb high pressure centered near 35N40W is
remaining stationary, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
over the deep tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists,
with recent altimeter satellite passes showing 12 to 14 ft seas
covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12 ft seas
north of 12N and east of 55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Christensen



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