Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 160512

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
112 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.


...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A E moving cold front is currently entering the west Atlantic
from Florida. Gale-force winds are expected to continue north of
30N east of the front to 74W until just after sunrise, with seas
ranging between 8-12 ft outside of the Bahamas. For more details,
please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western
Africa near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N35W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from
03N to 08N between 08W and 19W, and from 00N to 04N between 32W
and 51W.



Fresh to strong northerly winds cover the eastern Gulf following
a late season cold front that extends from 27N82W to 21N86W.
Seas range between 8-13 ft within about 300 nm W of the front,
with the 13 ft observation over the central Gulf measured by buoy
42001 earlier tonight. High pressure has built over the western
Gulf behind the front, with a 1022 high center near 24N96W. This
high supports gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf this

The front will continue moving east across the remainder of the
southeastern Gulf through the early morning. Winds and seas will
diminish through today as high pressure continues to build east
across the basin. The center of the high pressure ridge will reach
the NE Gulf by mid week, which will help to induce fresh to
strong SE return flow will over the northwest Gulf by late Tuesday
between the ridge and lower pressure over the southern Plains. A
weaker cold front is forecast to stall and dissipate over the
northern Gulf Thursday.


Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the
basin as indicated by a recent scatterometer pass. Fresh to
strong east winds are likely occurring off northeast Colombia
with seas to 9 ft. Altimeter data are indicating 5-8 ft seas are
occurring elsewhere over the basin. A cold front is now entering
the NW Caribbean, extending from 22N85W to 20N88W. Scattered
thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the front. A surface
trough over the Gulf of Honduras supports clusters of
thunderstorms S of 18N and W of 85W.

The cold front stall from central Cuba to central Honduras late
tonight, before dissipating through late Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue to progress SE ahead of the cold front
through today. Strong NW winds will follow the front from the
coast of Quintana Roo in the Yucatan to the Gulf of Honduras,
before diminishing tonight. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong trade
winds will continue to pulse near the coast over the south central
Caribbean through late this week.


Gale-force winds are expected to continue over the west Atlantic N
of 30N, E of the front until just after sunrise this morning.
Please refer to the Special Features section above for more

Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are occurring elsewhere W
of 75W N of 26N, E of a cold front that is now beginning to
emerge off the coast of N Florida. A pre- frontal squall line as
of 0300 UTC extends from 31N78W to 24N80W. Gusty, shifting winds
and numerous thunderstorms will accompany this squall line as it
moves east over the western Atlantic waters through today. The
rest of the front will reach the E coast of central and S Florida
late tonight, then reach from 31N70W to central Cuba late Monday
night. The southern portion will then stall from 25N70W to E Cuba
Tuesday, with the north portion stalling from 31N60W to 25N67W on
Wednesday. The entire front will then weaken and dissipate later
this week. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will diminish
Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the
western Atlantic.

Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by
a 1029 mb high near 33N59W. The only exception is a frontal
trough that is over the central Atlantic, extending from 31N30W
to 29N35W, void of convection. The ridge is maintaining light
winds north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of
25N. NE to E swell of 7-10 ft persists south of 20N, E of 55W, as
noted in recent altimeter passes.

The ridge will shift east today ahead of a reinforcing cold front
that will move into the central Atlantic region Tuesday. The
front will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a large area
of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 15 ft covering much of the
area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and Thursday as the
swell in excess of 8 ft south of 20N subsides.

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